The Under Reported War 08 - April 13 2025

Today is 1145 days into Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation

Welcome to a weekly roundup of news from Ukraine you probably did not hear. All reports will be linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions or need more detail I’ll be happy to try to give you answers.

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Sunday April 6th - Saturday April 12th 2025

Fixed wing drone with six FPV drones. Ukraine’s airborne drone carrier / UNITED 24

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BEHIND THE HEADLINES

Here’s some things you probably did not hear about this week.

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Can Russians predict the future? Apparently so. German broadcaster ZDF conducted some excellent online research and found that, four days before a 2024 knife attack in Mannheim, Germany, there were internet searches originating in Russia for "terrorist attack in Mannheim", searches for a stabbing which named the victim, and searches for live webcams that covered the market square where the attack later happened. A police officer was killed and the target, a prominent right-wing critic of Islam, was stabbed.

• Russische Suchanfragen im Netz vor Anschlägen (Russian Online Searches Before Knife Attack in Mannheim)
  https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/deutschland/anschlaege-deutschland-russland-hinweise-100.html
  
  "A sensational attack occurred in May 2024, one month before the European elections: In a knife attack in Mannheim, an Afghan man killed a police officer and injured, among others, the radical right-wing Islam critic Michael Stürzenberger.
  
  ZDF discovered suspicious search queries from Russia in the run-up to the attacks... the Mannheim knife attack on Islam critic Michael Stürzenberger was already a search topic before the attack. There were already search queries from Russia for a "terrorist attack in Mannheim" four days before the attack.
  
  Other search queries from Putin's empire in the run-up to the attack included "attack in Germany," "Michael Stürzenberger attack," or "Michael Stürzenberger stabbed.... there were also Russian searches for webcams on Mannheim's market square—the later crime scene—in order to obtain a live image."

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This is how the personality cult of MAGA distorts the worldview of those who follow it.

• Ukraine’s first US congresswoman: Zelensky must cede land to Russia
  https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/04/07/victoria-spartz-interview-republican-ukraine-war/
  “Constituents have torn shreds out of Victoria Spartz for her views, but she’s not backing down.”

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Two weeks ago, the New York Times published an article about America’s role in supporting Ukraine during the Biden administration. It was excellent reporting and very revealing: not just as an exercise in white-washing and retro-fitting history conducted by many of the interviewees, but, unhappily, of how arrogant the US military were in the way they advised Ukraine.

[If you cannot get beyond the NYT’s paywall, click on the archive link below to read the full story.]

• The Partnership: The Secret History of the War in Ukraine
  https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/03/29/world/europe/us-ukraine-military-war-wiesbaden.html
  This is the untold story of America’s hidden role in Ukrainian military operations against Russia’s invading armies.
  https://archive.ph/roi7X#selection-281.0-289.116

It did not take long for critics to push back against the double-think and blinkered thinking of many those at the Biden White House and Pentagon. Here is Prof. Phillips OBrien on American military arrogance:

• How The USA Aided Ukraine Explains A Great Deal
  https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/how-the-usa-aided-ukraine-explains
  Why The US Is The Greatest Battle-Winning, War-Losing Force in History.
  
  “No power has had the global reach and technological dominance and capabilities of the USA since 1945, and yet at the same time, the US has lost most of the wars it has fought—and that includes the two longest and most expensive that it chose to start, The Vietnam War and The War on Terror in Afghanistan.”

He followed it up with a piece on how US policy makers made it impossible for Ukraine to win the war in 2022-23.

• How The USA Aided Ukraine Not To Win A War
  https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/how-the-usa-aided-ukraine-not-to
  “The US strategic policy towards Ukraine, as outlined in this article, is one of failure—and a failure that is absolutely typical of how the USA has waged wars since 1945. It started with the idea of providing Russia with a sanctuary, and based on the idea that Ukraine could win a battlefield war of limited range. It was also based on US arrogance that it understood war (when it does not) and on the same time that the US could somehow encourage Ukraine to fight a US-type war with only a fraction of American capabilities.”

Oh, and it was Phillips OBrien, a professor of military history, who had to do some very basic investigative journalism last year to expose why Biden’s White House seemed so fearful of upsetting Putin. (This was something any journalist could have done, yet none did so. Sigh… another stain on the profession… Welcome to the Under Reported War.)

• Samuel Charap's "Peace" Plan for Putin
  https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/samuel-charaps-peace-plan-for-putin

  
  “I’ve learned a great deal about how Washington works over the last few years, frankly more than I would have liked. For instance, what is clear is that knowing your subject seems to have an inverse relationship with the policy making influence you have.
  
  When it comes to Ukraine policy, its worth noting that those who were screaming the loudest and the longest that Ukraine should not be armed and should basically be handed over to Putin, have been the ones, since the full-scale invasion was launched, who have regularly traipsed into the White House to see senior members of the National Security Council and even the President himself.
  
  How do we know? Well the White House is kind enough to actually put online its visitor logs—and you can look up who has been signed in to visit, when they signed in, and even who they were down to visit.
  
  The Biden White House and NSC has a fascinating profile when it comes to advisers on the Russo-Ukraine war—its been overwhelmingly slanted towards those who were taking the most extreme anti-Ukraine and pro-Russian positions before February 24, 2022. And [Samuel] Charap might be the best example of this.
  
  Charap, btw, along with regular White House visitors like Christopher Chivvis and Michael Kofman, was one of if not the loudest “expert” proclaiming that Ukraine should not be aided to defend itself against Putin. He was co-author of arguably the most infamous article on the subject, released just a few weeks before the Russian army started its invasion.”

Phillips OBrien’s sleuthing revealed who was guiding Biden’s passive Ukraine policy / Screenshot

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NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR) is General Cavoli, an American. He comes out of the NYT article as one of the few senior US military figures who understood what Ukraine needs. Cavoli fought, but failed, to get the Biden administration to react in a timely manner. He was very outspoken before the US Senate last week (see The Under Reported War 07) and has continued in that manner with multiple speeches and interviews this week briefing against the White House’s anti-NATO plans. You have to wonder if he knows it will not be long before Trump fires him.

• Pentagon considering proposal to cut thousands of troops from Europe, officials say
  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/pentagon-considering-proposal-cut-thousands-troops-europe-officials-sa-rcna199603
  Experts warn that the timing of the potential drawdown could alarm NATO allies and embolden Russian President Vladimir Putin.

• Top commander, in potential clash with Pentagon, warns US troops should stay in Europe
  https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/08/troops-europe-withdraw-cavoli-republicans-00007176
  [General Cavoli’s] comments follow reports that the Defense Department is considering removing thousands of servicemembers from the continent.

• Ukrainian F-16s Fly Daily, Hit Targets with 80% Accuracy, U.S. Army General Confirm
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_f_16s_fly_daily_hit_targets_with_80_accuracy_us_army_general_confirms-14137.html
  F-16 fighter jets are now actively participating in Ukraine's air operations against Russian forces, as confirmed by U.S. Army General Christopher G. Cavoli. The aircraft are engaged in both defensive and offensive missions, including targeting cruise missiles and conducting bombing runs.

• USA Leaves Key Logistics Hub For Ukraine Aid in Poland: Was It Trump Or Planned in Advance
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/usa_leaves_key_logistics_hub_for_ukraine_aid_in_poland_was_it_trump_or_planned_in_advance-14121.html
  The airport near the Polish city of Rzeszów has been pivotal for the transfer of military materiel to Ukraine since 2022, and Moscow has repeatedly stressed how it wished to strike it down.
  
  American units previously stationed near Rzeszów have been redeployed to other U.S. facilities in Poland, though their exact locations have not been specified. However, it is worth noting that the U.S. 5th Army Corps headquarters is based in Poznań, western Poland.
  
  Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz confirmed that the airfield is now primarily staffed by Norwegian, German, British, and Polish personnel, along with other NATO allies, and that its operations will continue uninterrupted.

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NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE (How Russia Fights v How Ukraine Fights)

We can now add electric mini-bikes to the list of e-scooters, bathtub motorbike sidecars, golf buggies, motorbikes, looted civilian cars and buses, and museum-piece trucks Russians use to ride into battle / Screenshot

This week the contrast between how Russia and Ukraine conduct attacks was highlighted starkly.

• Russian assault group on electric mini-scooters departs to attack front lines

  https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lm7vd5xvo22b
  There is no video of them returning.

I mentioned the appearance of ancient light transport GAZ-69 trucks on the front line last week. The inevitable happened.

• Russia’s 70-Year-Old Assault Trucks Got Wiped Out In Eastern Ukraine
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/04/10/russias-70-year-old-assault-trucks-got-wiped-out-in-eastern-ukraine/
  “Drones swarmed the museum-grade GAZ-69 trucks. All along the front line, vehicle losses are spurring a swift de-mechanization of the Russian army.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine, being outnumbered, only attacks rarely, but, when it does, its well coordinated assaults make rapid progress. Donald Hill at Sarcastosaurus has an account of one such attack in Luhansk oblast. It could not be more different from how Russia launches piecemeal attacks.

• 3rd Assault Brigade conducted an operation in Nadiia, Luhansk (March 2025)
  https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-7-april-2025-part-1
  
  “Five companies were involved in the attack with tank and drone support and the battalion command post was able to direct operations in response to enemy movement and manage the ammo reserved for the operation. They also provided EW support and intercepted enemy radio transmissions. The infantry on the ground was still needed to spot targets that the drones couldn’t see and they were needed to secure the ground and defend against Russian counterattacks.
  
  The Russians spent two months and expended two regiments to take the village and the 3rd Brigade took it back in 30 hours.”

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I’ve mentioned in several bulletins how Ukraine is switching to the ‘Drone Line’ concept. This creates a 15-20km deep zone patrolled by drones that the Russian have to fight through to even get close to Ukrainian positions. The Drone Line maximises Ukraine’s strength: innovative military technology, and minimises its greatest weakness: manpower shortages. This week we saw a demonstration of how that concept works:

• Four Russian Assault Groups Attacked At The Same Time In Donetsk—And Ran Into A Wall Of Drones
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/04/11/four-russian-assault-groups-attacked-at-the-same-time-in-donetsk-and-ran-into-a-wall-of-drones/
  
  “50 Russians reportedly died in the failed attempt to restore momentum to Russian assaults in southern Donetsk.
  
  Surveillance drones saw the Russians coming. First-person-view attack drones swarmed them. The resulting carnage was shocking, even by the terrible standards of Russia’s 38-month wider war on Ukraine.
  
  Drones immobilized vehicles and then chased down the surviving passengers and crew as they bailed out. So many drones attacked at the same time that the explosion of one drone triggered the warhead of another flying nearby…
  
  None of the four Russian assault groups even reached Ukrainian positions, the Khortytsia OSG claimed. Surveilling the aftermath, Ukrainian drones counted two destroyed tanks, two destroyed armored personnel carriers, four wrecked all-terrain vehicles, four immobilized motorcycles and 50 dead Russians.”

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THE DRONE WAR (LATEST BATTLEFIELD INNOVATIONS)

A Ukrainian Baba Yaga heavy drone bomber / Nemesis 412th Regiment

Ukrainian heavy quadcopter drones have been terrorising Russian front line units for at least two years. They fly at night to avoid being shot down and use night vision cameras to find targets to bomb. Russia has decided that to try that too. Trouble is, the Ukrainian better equipped with night vision equipment. It will be interesting to see how effective this bombing campaign is.

• Russia Forms Baba Yaga Units
  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/russia_forms_agricultural_drone_units_what_they_plan_to_arm_them_with-14084.html
  
  “Russia is replicating the tactics of Ukraine’s Defense Forces by deploying heavy strike multicopters, informally known as Baba Yaga.”
  

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The pace of drone innovation and counter-innovation is stupendous. Three years ago, Turkey’s Bayraktar drones ruled the battlefield. They took a lot of the credit for Azerbaijan’s victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. Today, they are already obsolete with even ill-equipped insurgent groups shooting them down.

• Turkey’s Best Drones Are Being Shot Down Over Middle East And Africa
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/pauliddon/2025/04/06/turkeys-best-drones-are-being-shot-down-over-middle-east-and-africa/
  https://archive.ph/JK87v [Use this link if you cannot get past the paywall]
  
  March 2025 is undoubtedly the worst month to date for Turkey’s indigenous Bayraktar Akinci drone, with at least two going down in Africa and the Middle East within a mere two weeks under different circumstances.
  

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Another unmanned ground vehicle (UGV - AKA war robot) joined Ukraine’s war effort.

• The Armed Forces of Ukraine Adopt Domestic D-21-12R Unmanned Ground Vehicle with Heavy Machine Gun
  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/the_armed_forces_of_ukraine_adopt_domestic_d_21_12r_unmanned_ground_vehicle_with_heavy_machine_gun-14104.html
  
  “The domestically developed D-21-12R vehicle, now officially adopted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, brings firepower and mobility to the battlefield with its heavy machine gun and off-road capabilities.”
  

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When AI (used in its loosest sense) comes up against reality, problems usually emerge. This is just as true on the battlefield as anywhere else.

• The Way Forward: why AI Drones didn't take over the Battlefield... (at least not yet)
  https://substack.com/inbox/post/160702110
  
  “There’s a popular notion floating around that AI drones are already everywhere — spotting targets, making decisions, and executing strikes without human input.
  
  In reality, autonomous drones do exist, and they are being used — particularly by Ukraine — but they remain the exception, not the rule. Most battlefield drones are still manually piloted, visually aimed, and dead-reckoned through hostile airspace.”
  

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Another week, another new drone goes into mass production in Ukraine. This time it’s a high-altitude night hunter that targets Iranian-designed Shahed kamikaze drones.

• Ukraine’s Interceptors Take Down High-Flying Russian Shaheds
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2025/04/11/ukraines-interceptors-take-down-high-flying-russian-shaheds/
  
  “Russia’s campaign of strategic drone attacks has shifted up through the gears and is now sending over 4,000 drones a month into Ukraine, hitting energy infrastructure and apartment blocks. Numbers will increase even further in coming months as mass production of Iranian-designed Shaheds, Russian Gerberas and other types ramps up.
  
  Russia’s campaign of strategic drone attacks has shifted up through the gears and is now sending over 4,000 drones a month into Ukraine, hitting energy infrastructure and apartment blocks. Russia appears to have adopted two new tactics to increase the number of drones that get through. One is concentrating more drones on a single target; the other is flying at high altitude, so they are not vulnerable to gunfire until they reach their targets where they descend in a steep dive.
  
  And while Ukraine brings down as many of the attacking drones as possible with its integrated air defense system, the sheer number of incoming Shaheds threatens to overwhelm them.
  
  Ukraine’s defence has started the pivot from ground-to-air weapons to a new generation of [high-altitude] interceptor drones to stop the Shaheds.”

Ukraine claims this un-named high-altitude interceptor drone has already brought down 20 Russian Shaheds / Ukrainian Ministry of Defence

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THE DRONE WAR (THE LONG-RANGE WAR)

First Person View (FPV) drones and loitering munitions (missiles with wings) dominate the frontline to a depth of 15-20 kilometres in either direction. This week, a FPV drone reportedly destroyed yet another Buk-M2.

• Russian BUK-M2 air defense system destroyed yesterday by a drone strike in the Luhansk region, Sokolohirsk. 50km from the front line.
  https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lm34kpzl2s2a
  

That is not unusual in itself. But it is the distance behind the Russian front—50 kilometres—that is significant. FPV drones are lightweight and do not have the battery power to fly that far. However, Ukraine has a solution to that.

• Flying Aircraft Carriers: Ukraine Refines FPV Mothership Tactics
  Flying Aircraft Carriers: Ukraine Refines FPV Mothership Tactics
  Ukraine is fielding carrier drones or motherships to transport FPVs to the target area before launching them.

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Ukraine’s long-range drones continue to range deep into Russia. One of the strategic bombers that launches missiles at Ukraine’s cities was destroyed this week.

• Ukrainian Drone Destroys Russian Tu-22M3 Bomber in Precision Strike Deep Inside Enemy Territory
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_drone_destroys_russian_tu_22m3_bomber_in_precision_strike_deep_inside_enemy_territory-14129.html
  The aircraft, which had participated in missile strikes on Ukraine and costs around $100 million, was destroyed right at the airfield deep inside the territory of the aggressor country.

And more co-ordinated raids took place on April 9th.

• Russia Under Fire: Massive Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Airbases, Ammo Depots in 13 Regions
  https://www.kyivpost.com/post/50444
  Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack in the early hours of Wednesday, April 9, claiming that 158 drones were allegedly shot down over Russian territory and the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula.

Tu-22M swing-wing supersonic bomber / Open source

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GRIMLY HILARIOUS MOMENTS OF THE WEEK

Darth Putin
Czar for life of all Russians. Master Strategist. Tea connoisseur. Author. YouTuber. Window installer. Wanted in 123 countries. Parody, apparently.
https://bsky.app/profile/darthputinkgb.bsky.social

Darth Putin purports to be the Russian leader’s searingly honest online presence. This week he chose to comment on Trump’s tariffs.

Darth Putin is, and will always remain, a master strategist.

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AIR WAR

This is the Russian Buk M2 missile launcher that shot down Malaysian Airways Flight MH17 on 17th July 2014, murdering all 298 passengers and crew / Bellingcat

It has been another very bad week for Russian air defences, particularly their Buk family of surface-to-air missile launchers. I’ve already mentioned the obliteration of two Buk SAM missile systems this week. Another four Buk anti-aircraft missile systems were destroyed in a single day. This is destruction at an unsustainable rate. As ever, Ukrainian drone pilots aimed for the Buks’ radars. These are the costliest and most difficult to replace part of any surface-to-air missile system.

• New Record: Ukrainian Drone Forces Destroy Three Russian Buk Air Defense Systems in 12 Hours (Video)
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/new_record_ukrainian_drone_forces_destroy_three_russian_buk_air_defense_systems_in_12_hours_video-14107.html
  “On the Kursk axis, operators of the 413th Separate Raid Drone Systems Battalion in coordination with the combined BPS Bumblebee detachment from Ukraine’s 78th Air Assault Regiment, detected and destroyed three Russian Buk air defense systems over a 12-hour period.”
  
  https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lm7htdtfcc2m
  “Using FPV drones, they destroyed a "Buk-M2" launcher hidden in a forest and damaged the radars of two "Buk-M3" systems.”

And another one makes four in a day; six in one week..

• The Nemesis 412th Regiment Destroys Russian Buk-M3 Air Defense System Worth $100 Million (Video)
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_nemesis_412th_regiment_destroys_russian_buk_m3_air_defense_system_worth_100_million_video-14101.html
  “In the Luhansk region, the 412th Nemesis Regiment of the Unmanned Systems Forces detected the operation of a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system.”

Plus more Buk kills. This undated video of loitering munition strikes on Pantsir and Buk air defence systems ight be recent, might not be. It has been snowing in some parts of Ukraine this week.

• Drone strikes on the Russian Pantsir-S1 and BUK-M3 air defence systems as well as Kupop radar system.
  https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lmiaq6yqss2a
  
  Ukrainian loitering munitions, guided by SHARK drones, successfully strike Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense systems, Kupol radars, and Buk-M3 missile systems.

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At the moment, Ukraine appears to have an upper hand in electronic warfare. For the second time in two weeks, another glide bomb was steered into a Russian underground command bunker.

• Busting Yet Another Russian Bunker, A Ukrainian Fighter Jet Buried An Artillery Command Staff
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/04/09/busting-yet-another-russian-bunker-a-ukrainian-fighter-jet-buried-an-artillery-command-staff/
  “Lobbing a precision-guided bomb from potentially tens of miles away, a Ukrainian air force fighter—possibly an upgraded Mikoyan MiG-29—hammered a Russian bunker in southern Ukraine’s Kherson Oblast on Monday.
  
  The attack in southern Ukraine could offset Russia’s manpower advantage in the region, where a dozen or more Russian regiments and brigades face just a handful of Ukrainian brigades.”

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A second Ukrainian F-16 has been shot down with the loss of its pilot.

• Ukraine Confirms Loss of F-16, Pilot Killed on Combat Mission
  https://www.kyivpost.com/post/50675
  “In a social media post on Saturday, April 12, the Ukrainian Air Force posted about the death of an F-16 pilot and the loss of his aircraft during a combat mission.”

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RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARFARE

Some new-ish Russian talking points were posted by bots and online trolls this week. Expect these to now be repeated on Fox News, then by the European far right, by Republicans in Congress, and then by Trump’s coterie.

• “The US and NATO extended their dirty hands into Ukraine with the intention of seizing Crimea to control Russia in the Black Sea, but Russia saw through it.”
  

• “Ukraine foolishly chased after illusions of joining NATO to confront Russia, ultimately dragging the country into war, division, and devastation.”
  

• “The West deluded itself into thinking it could quickly defeat Russia through dirty schemes: spreading false propaganda, imposing economic sanctions, sending weapons, and deploying troops into Ukraine... But look at the outcome—what did they achieve? Fortunately, not all Europeans are fools.”

Note the over-elaborate almost histrionic language. It’s a hallmark of Russian information warfare.

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FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE

The Morooka PC-065B. Japan has very quietly given military aid to Ukraine. Not a lot of it, but it is useful / WIKIMEDIA COMMONS

• Japan’s Mud-Loving Engineering Vehicle Makes Its Debut Along The Ukrainian Front Line
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/04/08/japans-mud-loving-engineering-vehicle-makes-its-debut-along-the-ukrainian-front-line/
  The five-ton Morooka PC-065B can lift three tons while treading across mud and swamps. It’s ideal for building defenses for outnumbered Ukrainian infantry.

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Norway and the UK announce a new joint aid package. Norway also decides to the Czech-led artillery initiative, and to contribute to the separate European artillery consortium. The Ramstein meeting produced two announcements: the Dutch are providing more air defences and the Ukraine Contact Group of nations (excluding the USA) has put together a huge €21 billion military aid package. Meanwhile, the next tranche of interest from Russian assets frozen by the EU has been delivered to Ukraine. It’s worth 3.1 billion Euros.

• UK and Norway to provide $585 million in joint military support to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports
  https://kyivindependent.com/uk-and-norway-to-provide-585-million-in-joint-military-support-to-ukraine-bloomberg-reports/
  The U.K. and Norway are set to provide a 450 million pound ($585 million) military aid package to Ukraine, Bloomberg reported on April 10. The U.K. will allocate 350 million pounds ($455 million), while Norway will contribute the remaining 100 million pounds ($130 million), through the U.K.-led International Fund for Ukraine.

• Norway is providing €430 million to strengthen Ukraine’s artillery ammunition supply
  https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmaofh2tr22y
  https://www.regjeringen.no/no/aktuelt/fem-milliarder-til-artilleriammunisjon-til-ukraina/id3096006/
  €345M through the Czech initiative and €85M via the European Peace Facility. “Europe must take greater responsibility for Ukraine’s fight for freedom,” says PM Støre.

• The Netherlands is allocating €150M to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense
  https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmjrs5wmrs2s
  Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans made the announcement prior to the Ukraine Contact Group meeting (Ramstein) at NATO headquarters.

• Ukraine allies promise €21bn in military support for Kyiv
  https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/11/ukraine-allies-promise-21bn-military-support-kyiv
  Ukraine’s allies have announced a record €21bn (£18.2bn) in additional military support for Kyiv and have accused Vladimir Putin of dragging his feet and delaying US-led negotiations over a ceasefire deal..

• The EU has allocated an additional €2.1 billion from profits on frozen Russian assets to support Ukraine, according to the European Commission
  https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lmfanabkuk2h
  Earlier today, the EU had already transferred €1 billion to Ukraine from these profits.

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However, all the money in the world cannot buy equipment and munitions from off-the-shelf if it has not been built yet.

• Ukraine Got Only Half of Patriot Systems It Asked For, Supply of Missiles is Even Worse
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraine_got_only_half_of_patriot_systems_it_asked_for_supply_of_missiles_is_even_worse-14114.html
  Ukrainian air defense forces received exactly half of the bare minimum of Patriot systems that the President asked from partners, but there's an even bigger issue… Yet, beyond the shortage of air defense systems themselves, an even more pressing issue has emerged: the availability of interceptor missiles.

The USA does have enormous stockpiles, some of which is, in theory, available to buy.

• Ukraine is Ready to Lay Out $30 to $50 Billion For U.S. Weapons: Pricing, Queues, and Delivery Costs
  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/ukraine_is_ready_to_lay_out_30_to_50_billion_for_us_weapons_pricing_queues_and_delivery_costs-14139.html
  Kyiv could buy American weapons, including used ones, and there's even a chance of getting some for free, but it’s important to remember that the defense business is, first and foremost, a business, and it works both ways.

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EUROPE REARMS

At a time where everyone wants new air defences, Israel is positioned to take advantage of the destruction of Europe’s trust in the United States.

• ​David’s Sling Could Outgun Patriot, SAMP/T In Estonia’s Air Defense Bid
  https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/davids_sling_could_outgun_patriot_and_sampt_in_estonias_air_defense_bid-14115.html
  Just the fact that David’s Sling is in the tender points to the likely winner, as it’s the only missile defense system that would allow Estonia to shoot down Russian aircraft over St. Petersburg and Novgorod, even intercept ballistic missiles, if needed

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The German arms industry goes up another gear.

• Rheinmetall is massively expanding its ammunition production
  https://bsky.app/profile/loyalmagazin.bsky.social/post/3lmecr3blgu26
  For artillery ammunition (155mm caliber), production capacity will increase fifteenfold by 2027 – compared to the level at the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022. Rheinmetall will quadruple production of main battle tank ammunition (120mm caliber) by 2027.

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For once, lessons appear to be being learnt from a war as it happens, not decades afterwards. Reliability, cost-effectiveness, and simplicity are valued. Sophistication is not, especially if it means increased unreliability, long waits for spare parts, and expensive maintenance. It is safe to conclude that this applies to all weapons systems donated to Ukraine, not just Germany’s.

• Germans Draw Surprising Conclusions From Ukraine's Experiences Using Patriot, Leopard, and PzH 2000
  https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/germans_draw_surprising_conclusions_from_ukraines_experiences_using_patriot_leopard_and_pzh_2000-14144.html
  
  “…the Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) self-propelled gun is described as having "such a high technical vulnerability that its suitability for war is strongly questioned." Frequent issues include barrel overheating and electronic failures.
  
  Meanwhile, the Leopard 1A5 tank is praised for its reliability but is "often only used as a makeshift artillery due to weak armor." The Leopard 2A6, although more modern, is expensive to repair and often has difficulties in receiving repairs near the front line.
  
  The IRIS-T air defense system is regarded as highly effective, however, missiles are costly and in short supply. A completely unexpected criticism is directed towards the Patriot missile defense system: though an "excellent weapon," it's effectively "unsuitable for war use because the carrier vehicle is too old and it's no longer possible to supply spare parts from the manufacturer."
  
  In contrast, the Gepard air defense system is highlighted as a reliable and cost-effective platform. Similarly, the Marder infantry fighting vehicle is characterized as simple and widely appreciated.”

The Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) in Ukraine / The 25th Airborne Brigade