The Under Reported War 11 - May 4 2025
Today is the 1,166th day of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation
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Welcome to a weekly roundup of news from Ukraine you probably did not hear. All reports will be linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions or need more detail I’ll be happy to try to give you answers.
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Sunday April 27th - Saturday May 3rd 2025
Sukhoi Su-30. One of these $50m Russian warplane was shot down by a humble Ukrainian naval drone on May 2nd. Another was destroyed during a drone attack on an airfield in Crimea / Open source
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Here’s some stories you probably did not hear about this week. All are newsworthy most have readily available video and photos, but were mostly ignored by the Western media. Oh well, welcome to The Under Reported War
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BEHIND THE HEADLINES
Whenever you hear some commentator pontificating about the peace negotiations remember two things: they are no better at predicting the future than you or I, and that they are probably ignorant of facts they should know before spouting their hot takes. For example, that the front line stretches for more than 1,300 kilometres or that there are more than 600,000 Russian troops in Ukraine (that’s more than at any other time in this war). So when you hear wailing about Europe failing to provide 25,000 troops as a deterrent, you know why that idea was doomed from the start. And that everyone involved knew that except for Trump and his clueless band of negotiators. They were probably told this, but the professionals who have the misfortune to work for thenm, but, of course, they simply ignored those hard uncomfortable facts.
Europe Unable to Gather 25,000 Troops for Deterrence Forces in Ukraine
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/the-times-europe-unable-to-gather-25-000-troops-for-deterrence-forces-in-ukraine/
“The creation of a 25,000-strong force with rotational capabilities has become unfeasible due to a shortage of active personnel in European armies.
In addition to the actual troop numbers, countries such as the United Kingdom and France have their own contingents stationed in other regions of the world, which prevents them from forming a cohesive force for long-term deployment in Ukraine.”
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Ex-General Ivan Popov. A rare Russian commander who knew how to fight effectively but is now in jail for daring to stand up for his troops / Open source
Two years ago, Ivan Popov was the darling of the Kremlin. A general in the elite paratroop force (the VDV) he was praised for re-organising Russian forces on the southern front and then defeating Ukrainian counter-attacks. Popov is one of the only two Russians generals who have displayed real ability in this conflict.
Luckily for Ukraine, he then refused to use the ‘meat grinder’ tactic that has reduced both the VDV and the wider army to a feeble shadow of what they were before the invasion. Beloved by his troops for caring about them, Popov was then perceived as an immediate threat by the Kremlin. Like every other tall poppy, he was cut down to size. The Kremlin and Putin are truly Ukraine’s greatest ally.
Moscow Has Jailed Ex-Commander Ivan Popov, Accused of Fraud Just Months After His Complaints About Frontline Decisions Went Public
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_uk_defense_intelligence_moscow_has_jailed_ex_commander_ivan_popov_accused_of_fraud_just_months_after_his_complaints_about_frontline_decisions_went_public-14356.html
“The sentencing of Ivan Popov on fraud charges follows his dismissal for questioning Russia's military leadership.”
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I know I keep banging on about these and similar stats, but it is great that David Axe over at Forbes does too:
At The Current Rate, It Would Take Russia Centuries And Tens Of Millions Of Casualties To Capture Ukraine
https://archive.ph/2gFDN
“But that doesn’t mean Russian leaders aren’t committed to the war effort.”
Forbes Magazine has over a million subscribers. It is the only news source of that size which covers the full scope fighting instead of just Russian missile attacks on cities. Presented with the evidence, I doubt many of its readers think Russia is doing well. If Forbes can do a relatively simple job, you wonder why the BBC, DW, the NYT, Fox (LOL) cannot.
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NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE
As readers will know by now, Ukraine has (currently) overcome Russia’s extensive battlefield electronic jamming. That’s due to putting Ukraine’s famed engineering talent to good use and designing hard-to-jam drones and other guided munitions which are then used to blow up the enemy’s very expensive and hard-to-replace jammers.
As a result, Ukraine’s drone regiments now have very good video-based evidence of their effectiveness.
How Many Targets Can Be Destroyed or Hit in 10,000 Sorties: Nemesis Regiment Reveals the Statistics
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/how_many_targets_can_be_destroyed_or_hit_in_10000_sorties_nemesis_regiment_reveals_the_statistics-14317.html
“The majority of systems neutralized or destroyed by the Nemesis 412th Regiment were artillery pieces, while one of the most valuable targets was a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system.”
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Last week, I mentioned more video had surfaced of badly wounded Russia troops being forced into ‘meat grinder’ assaults. The open source intelligence (OSINT) community online does a great job of amassing evidence from the front line and also compares satellite images over time of Russian equipment in open-air storage depots. This week, I was amazed at quite how many videos there are of the ‘Crutch Battalions’.
This thread compiles filmed instances of Russian 'cripple battalions' being used in Ukraine
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1916437398331806136.html?utm_campaign=topunroll
Russian troops have repeatedly been seen advancing into assaults on crutches or canes or even in wheelchairs, being used as 'meat probes' against Ukrainian defences.
Jompy is one of group of OSINT researchers who produces regular updates of the remarkable rate at which Russia’s gargantuan equipment reserves are being depleted. This is opinion-free ,fact-based research. It might make you wonder why you have rarely, if ever, heard any of this. Sigh…. as ever, this is The Under Reported War.
Most of the Equipment Stored at the Central Reserve Tank Base is Now Gone
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1916519258877546581.html
“A lot of updated images both on Google and Livingatlas. Among these, there are several major storage bases, and as usual, the pattern is them becoming depleted. Let's see a few of them.”
A Central Tank Reserve base in the good old days before 2022. Now what’s left are mostly cannibalised, corroded hulks fit only for the scrapyard / Open source
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An extraordinary rescue mission happened this week. Ukrainian drone units, working together, improvised the rescue of three Ukrainian POWs who had been spotted being led into captivity by Russian troops. Drone bombers drove off the Russians whilst a reconnaissance drone led the Ukrainians to safety.
Unique Ukrainian Drone Bomber Mission Rescues Captives
https://archive.ph/gWgoQ
“Ukrainian drone operators carried out an unusual rescue mission recently, using precision strikes from multiple drones to free three soldiers who had been taken captive and lead them to safety.”
The escaped Ukrainians (in black at top left) led to safety by a drone / Border Guards of Ukraine
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THE AIR WAR
In the last few months, it’s become clear that a very important part of Ukraine’s ‘Drone Line’ defence is the successful interception of many expensive Russian surveillance drones with fast, cheap hunter-killer drones. With them, the Russians have become blinded over large sections of the front line making both ground assaults even more suicidal and accurate targeting of Ukrainian positions far more difficult.
Ukraine Constantly Develops New Methods Against Russian Electronic Warfare and Air Defenses
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/ukraine_constantly_develops_new_methods_against_russian_electronic_warfare_and_air_defenses-14316.html
“...Russian reconnaissance drones pose the greatest threat. Dealing with them is a race of technology against the enemy.”
One account reminded me of how crows harry falcons and eagles out of the sky.
Ukrainian Forces Take Down $300,000 Russian Merlin-VR Drone With $500 Drone (VIDEO)
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_forces_take_down_300000_russian_merlin_vr_drone-14347.html
“The operator reportedly attempted to ram the enemy Merlin drone after the FPV interceptor failed to detonate. After being hit by a Ukrainian UAV, the Russian drone began to fall and crashed into a tree.”
The ‘Boom of the Week’ award goes to the drone operators who shadowed then blew up a Russian missile launcher.
The Buk M3 explodes / screenshot
Ukrainian Forces Release Video as $45 Million Russian BUK-M3 SAM System Is Epically Destroyed
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_forces_release_video_as_45_million_russian_buk_m3_sam_system_is_epically_destroyed-14370.html
“The video shows the destruction of a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system, followed by the detonation of its ammunition.”
And Ukraine is extending this concept to aerial interception of the drones Russia aims at its cities every day. Last year, those attacks depleted Ukraine’s small stockpile of very expensive, slow-to-build surface-to-air missiles. Firing a $3m missile in scarce supply at a drone worth a tiny fraction of that cost worked in Russia’s favour. Now Ukraine is turning that equation on its head.
Ukraine Deploys World's First Drone-Based Air Defense: the Nemesis Regiment Downs 60 Shahed and Geran Drones in Two Months
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/ukraine_deploys_worlds_first_drone_based_air_defense_the_nemesis_regiment_downs_60_shahed_and_geran_drones_in_two_months-14369.html
“Despite their lower price tag, these drones are able to successfully destroy enemy UAVs costinag anywhere from $10,000 to $150,000. In effect, Ukraine is flipping the economic logic of Russia's drone war, making it far more costly [relatively] for Moscow to continue such attacks.”
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THE LONG-RANGE WAR
Ukraine continued its long-range war against Russia’s military supply chain. Here’s one example of an attack on a ‘bottleneck’ factory that produces electronic components for a wide range of weapons.
Drones reportedly strike Russian plant producing parts for missiles, radars
https://kyivindependent.com/bryansk-strike-overnight/
“The plant produces components for missile systems such as the Topol-M, Bulava, and Iskander, as well as for radars, electronic warfare systems, drones, and the onboard electronics of military aircraft.”
Drone Attack Disrupts Strategic Russian Kremniy EL Electronics Plant in Bryansk, with Over 100 UAVs Targeting the Site
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/drone_attack_disrupts_strategic_russian_kremniy_el_electronics_plant_in_bryansk_with_over_100_uavs_targeting_the_site-14335.html
“The Kremniy EL plant, vital for Russia's defense technology, was damaged during a large-scale drone offensive.”
The Kremniy EL plant on fire / open source
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THE DRONE WAR (THE NAVAL WAR)
In a world first, Ukraine’s cheap Magura naval drone shot down one of Russia’s advanced Su-30 fighters as it tried to strafe a swarm of naval drones attempting to drive Russia’s cruise-missile armed naval vessels back into port.
Ablaze, the Su-30 multi-role fighter tumbles down into the sea / Defence Intelligence of Ukraine
Video Footage of the Su-30 Being Shot Down
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lob35tlsys2a
“Footage released by Ukraine's GUR confirms a Ukrainian naval drone shot down a Russian Su-30 fighter jet using a modified R-73 air-to-air missile. This is the first destruction of a combat aircraft by a naval drone in the world.”
Ukraine Destroys Two Russian Warplanes in 24 Hours, Including First Ever Naval Drone Strike
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51994
“Ukraine destroyed a $50M Russian Su-30 jet near Novorossiysk using a naval drone, the world’s first such strike, and downed a second warplane during an operation in Crimea.”
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RUSSIAN INFORMATION WARFARE
Info wars are the one thing that Russia has excelled at in this conflict. Long to gestate and subtle, the Kremlin’s disinformation can be hard to identify. Moldova appears once again to be the latest target.
Russia Launches Coordinated Disinformation Campaign Targeting Moldova
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/russia-launches-coordinated-disinformation-campaign-targeting-moldova/
“Videos mimicking content from global media outlets and academic institutions are being shared on the social platforms X and Bluesky.
They claim that Moldovan President Maia Sandu secured her election victory through propaganda campaigns and is now cracking down on political opponents.”
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FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE
Good and bad news this week. Artillery initiatives are delivering munitions at accelerating rates. As is, Ukraine’s domestic production of howitzers.
Good News for Ukrainian Artillery Gunners: More Cannons, More Shells
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/51635
“Money spent on production upgrades is getting results in Ukraine and in Europe. Now Ukraine is one of the world’s most prolific howitzer manufacturers.”
Polish PHU Lechmar Begins Ammunition Deliveries to Ukraine Under ₴23 Billion Deal, Despite Accusations
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/polish_phu_lechmar_supplier_begins_ammunition_deliveries_for_ukraine_under_23_billion_deal_despite_accusations-14351.html
“The supplier, Polish PHU Lechmar company, has so far demonstrated strict adherence to the delivery timetable, despite facing criticism in some circles.”
France has taken a detailed look at how well the CAESAR howitzers it supplies are doing. The answer is: very well compared to similar Swedish and German guns, although it is still taking far too long to build new ones.
France Revealed CAESAR Losses in Ukraine and Its Performance Compared to PzH2000 and Archer
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/france_revealed_caesar_losses_in_ukraine_and_its_performance_compared_to_pzh2000_and_archer-14376.html
“CAESAR has garnered great reputation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine thanks to impressive performance, confirmed by statistics, but France still struggles to ramp up its production.”
Ukrainian CAESAR 155mm howitzers / Screenshot
However, The lacklustre Biden administration’s inaction and Trump’s reluctance to grant a re-export licence for Australia’s American-built M1A1 tanks has left the whole project in limbo.
Delays in Australian M1 Abrams Transfer to Ukraine Show the Problem is Much Deeper
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/delays_in_australian_m1_abrams_transfer_to_ukraine_show_the_problem_is_much_deeper-14344.html
“None of the 49 Abrams tanks that Australia planned to transfer to Ukraine in October 2024 have left the country yet, aggravating the uncertainty over whether they will reach Ukraine at all. This situation, however, reflects deeper issues between the countries than just organizational problems of sending armored vehicles.”
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EUROPE REARMS
EU-wide funding for defence reconstruction is now underway.
Commission mobilises €910 million to boost European defence and close capability gaps
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_1116
“These investments aim to close key capability gaps—like force mobility and drone defence—through innovation and collaboration across European science and industry. Moreover, and for the first time, Ukrainian defence industries can be associated to EDF projects.”
it appears there is a tool, the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI), European nations can use should America attempt to coerce them into not supplying weapons to Ukraine. (thanks to Don over at Sarcastosaurus for pointing this out).
EU Anti-Coercion Instrument: Key Takeaways for Businesses
https://www.nortonrosefulbright.com/en-de/knowledge/publications/0c873dd6/eu-anti-coercion-instrument-key-takeaways-for-businesses
“It aims to protect the European Union (the EU), and its Member States, from economic coercion by third countries. “
And ‘desensitised’ is a the latest buzzword in the European defence sector. It means weapons and equipment which contain no American-made parts.
Defence companies boast Trump-proof weapons are free of US parts
https://archive.ph/IUuJX
“The first question firms now face when trying to export their weapons is whether they rely on American technology.”
The Jackal 2 tactical support vehicle, above, is made by Supacat, which is trumpeting the fact that its new Jackal 3 will include no American parts / Sean Gallup/Getty Images
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LEARNING FROM UKRAINE
Other nations are learning the lessons of this war. South Korea abandoned plans for a large, ultra-expensive aircraft carrier in favour of a fleet of cheap naval drones. The UK realised how vulnerable it is to Russian missile attack and is taking counter-measures. Ukraine’s drone veterans are now training the British Army. Across Europe, military drone training centres are opening. NATO’s tiniest (but very rich) member has funded the construction of a training facility in Estonia that opened recently.
Aircraft Carrier Project Dropped for Naval Drones: S.Korea is Building a Drone Fleet With a Mega-Flagship
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/aircraft_carrier_project_dropped_for_naval_drones_skorea_is_building_a_drone_fleet_with_a_mega_flagship-14315.html
“South Korea has contracted Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI) to develop the Combat USV, an unmanned surface vessel designed for reconnaissance and close-combat missions in forward areas, replacing manned ships. In the future, this system is expected to become part of the Navy Sea GHOST concept.”
British Military Simulates Russian Missile Attack on the UK: Results “Unsettling”
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/british-military-simulates-russian-missile-attack-on-the-uk-results-unsettling/
“Russian missiles breached the UK’s missile defense during a simulation of a missile attack similar to the one that took place on the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s Drone Vets Secretly Train the British Army Stuck in the Past
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/04/23/the-times-ukraines-drone-vets-secretly-train-the-british-army-stuck-in-the-past/
“Three years ago, Ukrainians arrived in Britain to train. Now, they’re back—teaching drone warfare shaped by frontline battles with Russia.”
European Drone Training Sites Mushroom in Nod to Ukraine War Tactics
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2025/04/28/european-drone-training-sites-mushroom-in-nod-to-ukraine-war-tactics/
“Drone tactics emerging from the war in Ukraine have inspired other European countries to intensify their military-experimentation campaigns, with a new crop of testing facilities designed to test the small aircraft in war-like conditions.”
Learning from Ukraine: How the West Is Preparing Drone Operators for Future Wars
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/learning_from_ukraine_how_the_west_is_preparing_drone_operators_for_future_wars-14338.html
“Last week, Estonia opened its first drone training center, designed for use by both Estonian forces and NATO unit. An increasing number of countries are building training centers and sites for drone operators, drawing lessons from Ukraine’s war experience. Notably, the facility was funded by Luxembourg, NATO’s smallest member.”
Luxembourg-funded Drone Training Center in Estonia / ERR
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