The Under Reported War 13 - May 17 2025

Today is Day 1,179 of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation

Welcome to a weekly roundup of news from Ukraine you probably did not hear. All reports will be linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions or need more detail, I’ll be happy to try to give you answers.

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Sunday 11 May 2025 - Saturday 17 May 2025

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Here’s some things you probably did not hear about this week.

Things are so desperate for Russia that the FSB Presidential Regiment is being sent to the front. If you don’t know who they are, it’s those tall emaciated fellers who open doors for Putin whilst doing weird salutes/ Fox News

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BEHIND THE HEADLINES

Ignoring all the posturing and hot air generated over ceasefire negotiation that were never going to achieve anything, there was some interesting reporting in the specialist press. Of course it was not picked up by the mainstream media, so you most likely did not hear about it. Oh well, welcome to The Under Reported War

TWZ had a great report on how, with all this warfare going on, there’s a shortage of explosives. Next, Germany’s new policy of NOT announcing aid donations again and again… and again seems like a good idea. Finally, Putin’s piggy bank, AKA the Russian sovereign wealth fund, may be running out of cash.

• Shell Game: Inside The Worldwide TNT Shortage
  https://www.twz.com/land/shell-game-the-worldwide-tnt-shortage
  “We talk to a major U.S. artillery shell maker about how ongoing conflicts have severely strained the global supply of critical explosive compounds.”

• Germany May Supply the Taurus Missiles to Ukraine If Russia Rejects Ceasefire, Keeping All Operational Details Under Wraps
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/germany_may_supply_the_taurus_missiles_to_ukraine_if_russia_rejects_ceasefire_keeping_all_operational_details_under_wraps-14489.html
  “Germany will not pre-announce the transfer, aligning with new confidentiality rules on military aid…. Germany is reportedly ready to support Ukraine with the Taurus long-range cruise missiles, but only under specific conditions. According to a recent report, Berlin may transfer these much-anticipated weapons if Russia refuses a proposed ceasefire.”

• Russia is on pace to run out of financial reserves by this fall, which would cripple war efforts, economist says
  https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-wealth-fund-reserves-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-stagflation-2025-1
  https://archive.ph/MtyZM
  “Russia is facing a critical challenge to its war effort in 2025: The nation is quickly running out of cash, with financial reserves potentially running out before the end of the year, according to estimates from one European economist… Anders Åslund, a Swedish economist and a former fellow at the Atlantic Council, thinks liquid reserves in Russia's National Wealth Fund could potentially be depleted by the fall of this year.”

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NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE

The Drone War continues.

At the moment it goes like this: Russia launches an attack but Ukraine sees them a log way off and then counter-attacks immediately with drones, mines, and artillery long before any Ukrainian positions are under threat. The Russians retreat (if they’re lucky) but then repeat the whole thing the next day. Meanwhile, FPV and Baba Yaga drones range far behind the frontline attacking logistics, command posts, and specialist equipment. Even drinking water is now in short supply. Here’s a summary from just three Ukrainian drone units:

• Ukrainian Strike Drone Operators Eliminate Russian UAV Command Posts, Shelters, and Equipment
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_strike_drone_operators_eliminate_russian_uav_command_posts_shelters_and_equipment_in_sumy_region-14478.html
  
  “Combat drone units of Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service have delivered a series of precision strikes against Russian forces in the Sumy region, destroying enemy UAV control points, fortified shelters, equipment, and personnel. “
  
  “In the Kharkiv direction, UAV operators of the Phoenix unit of the Pomsta (Revenge) Brigade carried out a series of high-impact attacks. Their latest missions resulted in the destruction of three UAZ vans (Bukhanka), two logistics trucks, three motorcycles, a civilian vehicle, two communications antennas, a forward POL (petroleum, oil, and lubricants) depot, and three fortified Russian positions.”
  
  “Meanwhile, in the Donetsk sector, Phoenix unit drone pilots executed a precision strike that neutralized a Russian R-330 Zhitel electronic warfare station and a Murom-P long-range surveillance system. The nighttime mission also destroyed nearby shelters, ammunition storage, and enemy vehicles.”

I could have posted dozens of similar reports.

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I’ve written before about Russia’s shortage of armoured assault vehicles being so extreme that they’re using e-scooters, bicycles, school buses, civilian cars, and, most recently, motorbikes to attack Ukrainian positions. David Axe (probably the best English language journalist covering the war daily) over at Forbes wrote a great piece summarising the pitfalls (literally) of this tactic.

• Russian Bike Assaults Tend To Get The Riders Killed—Especially When They Try Jumping
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/05/15/russian-bike-assaults-tend-to-get-the-riders-killed-especially-when-they-try-jumping/
  
  “As the Russian military loses more armored vehicles in Ukraine than it can immediately replace, and sends more troops into battle on motorcycles, there are tragic consequences for the riders.
  
  Not only are bike troops totally exposed to Ukrainian drones, artillery and mines—they may also be tempted to try feats of motorcycle aerobatics that would be difficult in peacetime, and are nearly impossible on the battlefield.”

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You know things are desperate for Russia if their ceremonial troops are being sent to the frontline. ‘Elite’ may not be the word to describe the Presidential Regiment. It’s true that the regiment is ’special’, but it is a ceremonial guard unit staffed by very tall and eating disorder-thin men not by elite infantry.

• Russia brings in 'top-level' FSB Presidential Regiment to Chasiv Yar, Ukraine's army says
  https://kyivindependent.com/russia-brings-in-top-level-fsb-presidential-regiment-to-chasiv-yar-ukraines-army-says/
  “Russian forces attempting to take the Ukrainian city of Chasiv Yar have been bolstered by the elite FSB Presidential Regiment, Suspilne media reported on May 11.”

The FSB Presidential Regiment. Soon to be goose-stepping into a swarm of FPV killer drones / alamy

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The Chernyi Glaz is designed to jam FPVs but somehow the drones keep hitting them. Articles auto-translated from Ukrainian can often produce ‘interesting’ results so be patient with this one.

• The Black Eye of Russian Forces: Chernyi Glaz Anti-FPV Jammer Analyzed
  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/the_black_eye_of_russian_forces_chernyi_glaz_anti_fpv_jammer_analyzed-14486.html
  “The new EW system fielded by Russians is concerning mostly for the scale of its mass production and increasing presence on frontlines in Ukraine.”

A Chernyi Glaz system designed to defeat FPV drones is filmed by a FPV drone a few frames before it strikes / Serhii Flash, Ukrainian Armed Forces

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Scouring obituary notices is a good way to track the minimum number of Russian officers killed since the Kremlin tries to ignore all such events. It’s a minimum because so many bodies lie on the battlefield unclaimed by Russia and a lot of deaths are just hushed up. For example, the reported deaths of general rank officers is more than ten, but only four appear on this list. On May 14th the total reached six thousand. Colonels now command divisions instead of generals, majors command battalions instead of colonels, and so on. And all this despite the Russian officer corp’s renowned aversion to being on the front line.

• Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russians have lost at least 6 thousand officers
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/since-the-beginning-of-the-full-scale-war-the-russians-have-lost-at-least-6-thousand-officers/
  “The largest number of losses was recorded among senior lieutenants – 1520 people. Lieutenants are in second place – 1237, and captains are in third place, with at least 940 killed. This is followed by majors – 609 killed, junior lieutenants – 460, colonels – 107, major generals – 7, and lieutenant generals – 3. In addition, the project counted 827 officers of other ranks killed.”

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Following up on last week’s videos pf ‘crutch battalions’, if you want more evidence of how callous and brutal the Russians are towards their own troops this was a bumper week. These social media videos are NSFW.

In the first, Russians troops are short of water and compassion. The former because drones destroy their supplies, the latter because they’re Russians.

In the second, an airstrike-hit bridge is struck again, but not before the geniuses filming decide it’s okay to go back on it. It seems unlikely they survived even though the phone did.

The final video is grim. It shows the brutality of punishments on the Russian front line.

• Russian fighters complain their comrades from nearby units denied water to a wounded soldier (VIDEO)
  https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lpcgoxyig225
  ““We don’t abandon our own,” they said.”

Yeah, they do. All the time.

• An airstrike on a bridge with Russian troops and their equipment (VIDEO)
  https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lp2iv63nak26
  “Filmed from a first-person perspective in Zvanoye, Kursk region.”

• Punishment for “500th” among Russian troops remains brutal (VIDEO)
  https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lp2oyxgcg226
  “In the 15th MRB, deserters are buried up to their necks in a “tight pit.” In the 9th MRB, they’re locked in metal barrels without food or water for days, often leading to death. If they die, they’re declared missing in action.”

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THE DRONE & MISSILE WAR (LATEST INNOVATIONS)

More improvised weaponry and a new Russian cruise missile identified.

From both sides there was a lot of puffery about mobile lasers that can shoot down drones by the dozen. I’m not covering them because they all have drawbacks like a truckload of batteries that only last half an hour in total. Battlefield lasers are a bit like driverless cars where Musk has been promising they will be on roads “in the next five years” for the last fifteen.

• Ukraine’s Latest Drone-Killer Is A Truck Firing Surplus Air-to-Air Missiles
  https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2025/05/12/ukraines-latest-drone-killer-is-a-truck-firing-surplus-air-to-air-missiles/
  “The British-made Raven is one of several Ukrainian ‘FrankenSAMs.’”

• New Small Russian Cruise Missile Captured By Ukrainian Intelligence
  https://www.twz.com/air/new-small-russian-cruise-missile-captured-by-ukraine-intelligence
  “Lightweight, low cost, and reportedly full of foreign components, Russia's Banderol cruise missile has emerged on the battlefield in Ukraine.”

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THE DRONE WAR (THE AIR WAR)

Ukraine continues to punch corridors through Russian air defences. If they can clear a path it allows long-range drones to hit targets deep into Russia. It’s been almost a Buk missile launcher a day this week. And as their air defences become degrading, it force the Kremlin to make difficult choices about where to position their remaining defences. The recent spate of drone attacks on radars across Crimea and the possible arrival of German-made Taurus missiles (perfect for taking down the Kerch Bridge) seems to have forced one such decision.

This S-400 SAM system was destroyed during the attack on Russian Dzhankoi Air Base in temporarily occupied Crimea, April 2024 / Screengrab

• ​Russians Redeploy Air Defense Assets to Bolster Temporarily Occupied Crimea
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russians_redeploy_air_defense_assets_to_bolster_temporarily_occupied_crimea-14481.html
  “To retain control of occupied Crimea, russia is reinforcing it with air defenses, leaving other areas exposed. Ukrainian forces regularly destroy these systems.”

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THE DRONE WAR (THE LONG-RANGE WAR)

Ukraine’s long game of targeting ‘downstream from the boom’ continues. Russians continue to post videos on social media of factories, depots, and air bases on fire. The most spectacular was this ammo dump exploding in Crimea. And two Russian dimwits stood videoing smking munition from that explosion spiralling towards them. A very dumb idea.

• Drone Strikes Ammunition Depot in Crimea’s Perevalne, Explosions Ongoing
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/drone-strikes-ammunition-depot-in-crimea-s-perevalne-explosions-ongoing/
  ”It is reported that during a morning attack on Friday, May 16, the ammunition depot of the 126th Coastal Defence Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the village of Perevalne was hit.”

• Russian occupiers are documenting the aftermath of a secondary detonation at an ammo depot in Perevalne, Crimea.
  https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lpbp5jfwzc2q
  “Shells continue to explode, sending fragments flying dozens of meters.”

The shell lands about 30m away from the soldiers, bounces another 10m towards them and they still did not take cover. The video then cuts out. I do not know what the aftermath was. / Screenshot

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Ukraine released an eerie video showing the night time launch of a swarm of long-rade attack drones.

• Mass launch of Ukrainian long-range 'Chaklun' kamikaze drones from dedicated launchers targeting Russian positions.
  https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lp2vznywo22z

Long-range Ukrainian drones lined up for launch. Extraordinary video. Watch it on the link above / Screenshot

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THE DRONE WAR (THE NAVAL WAR)

Magura naval drone launches a drone / Ukraine Ministry of Defence

These are the naval drones causing havoc across Crimea by launching large numbers of FPV and reconnaissance drones from just offshore at targets Russia never expected to be vulnerable to such attacks.

• Launches of FPV and winged kamikaze drones from modernized Ukrainian Magura-type naval drones (VIDEO)
  https://bsky.app/profile/specialkhersoncat.bsky.social/post/3lovksgp55k2w
  

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GRIMLY HILARIOUS MOMENTS OF THE WEEK

Recruiting for Russia? Or is it Ukraine? / Open source

Oh dear, this is a recruiting image for the Ukrainian army painted onto the side of a Russian building.

• In Russia, a mural costing 1.6 million rubles was painted featuring a soldier from an ad for the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  https://bsky.app/profile/wartranslated.bsky.social/post/3lp4og2qidk2s
  ”After an outcry from locals, the image was hastily painted over, even though the contract had included plans for two more murals on nearby buildings.”

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ON THIS DAY

I thought I’d compare Ukraine’s tally of Russian daily losses today, May 17th (the 1179th day of the war), with those reported this date three years ago on the 83rd day of the invasion. you can see the total since the invasion and that day’s reported losses.

I need to point out that early on the war, the claimed losses were a little sketchy, but Ukraine now uses video evidence (drones with cameras are everywhere!) and western intelligence agencies have repeatedly confirmed Ukraine’s figures are pretty accurate.

May 17 2022 / May 17 2025

Personnel 27,900 (+200) / 972,600 (+910)

Tanks 1,235 (+7) / 10,831 (+6)

APV 3,009 (+35) / 22,553 (+7)

Artillery systems 578 (+1) / 17,942 (+34)

MLRS 198 (+3) / 1,386 (+1)

Anti-aircraft 90 (+1) / 1,167 (+0)
warfare systems

Aircraft 201 (+1) / 372 (+0)

Helicopters 167 (+2) / 336 (+0)

Vehicles and 2,109 (+8) / 48,809 (+96)
Fuel tanks

Warships 13 (+0) / 28 (+0)

UAV drone 436 (+9) / 36,278 (+155)

Special 43 (+1) / 3,892 (+0)
equipment

Cruise missiles 97 (+0) / 3,197 (+0)

Both personnel figures (highlighted) are low for their respective times. It was usually ∼300 per day in May 2022 and at least 1,100 per day this year, but they still demonstrate how Russia has switched away from mechanised warfare to attacks on foot. What also stands out are the artillery losses. As Russia ran out of long-range artillery it was forced to field ever-older short-range artillery pieces. This brought them into range of Ukraine’s FPV killer drones and so Russia’s losses mounted even higher. You can also see how this has become a drone war in the tallies for UAV/drones shot down. The total this year is two orders of magnitude greater than in 2022.

Russian tank turret. May 17th 2022

• The 83rd Day of the War: Russian Casualties in Ukraine
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/the_83rd_day_of_the_war_russian_casualties_in_ukraine-2959.html

• 1179 Days of Russia-Ukraine War – Russian Casualties In Ukraine
  https://en.defence-ua.com/news/1179_days_of_russia_ukraine_war_russian_casualties_in_ukraine-14540.html
  

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FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE

An emotional appeal apparently inspired President Macros to hand over the entire annual production of France’s highly-effective CAESAR howitzers to Ukraine. Decoys play a large role for both sides on the front line. Britain has sent a new shipment. All of the F-16s promised to Ukraine by Norway will be delivered this year. Belgium’s will arrive in 2026.

• From Orikhiv to the Élysée: Macron Sends Entire 2025 Production Run of CAESAR Howitzers to Ukraine After 65th Brigade Soldier’s Message
  https://en.defence-ua.com/events/macron_sends_entire_2025_production_run_of_caesar_howitzers_to_ukraine_after_65th_brigade_soldiers_message-14517.html
  The words of a Ukrainian warrior Dmytro callsign Dancer, spoken to French journalists on the Orikhiv front, unexpectedly reached the highest levels of power. In response, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that all CAESAR self-propelled howitzers produced in France throughout 2025 will be delivered to Ukraine

• UK sends Flat-Packed Decoys to Ukraine to Confuse Russia About Arms Supplies
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/uk-sends-flat-packed-decoys-to-ukraine-to-confuse-russia-about-arms-supplies/
  The mock-ups replicate, in particular, the Challenger 2 main battle tanks and AS-90 self-propelled artillery systems that the UK has supplied to Ukraine as part of its military assistance.

• Norway to hand over all operational F-16s to Ukraine this year
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/norway-to-hand-over-all-operational-f-16s-to-ukraine-this-year/
  Norway plans to hand over all the promised F-16 fighters to Ukraine in 2025.

Norwegian F-16AM fighter. Photo credits: Royal Norwegian Air Force

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Denmark and Poland announced new aid packages.

• Denmark to provide Ukraine with 26th military aid package
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/denmark-to-provide-ukraine-with-26th-military-aid-package/
  “Denmark is one of Ukraine’s most active Western allies. This small country has already transferred nearly 20 Caesar self-propelled artillery systems to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, partially financed the purchase of 16 Zuzana self-propelled artillery systems, an undisclosed number of M109A3 self-propelled artillery systems that were restored from storage, as well as other artillery.”

• Poland Preparing 47th Military Aid Package for Ukraine Worth €200 Million
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/poland-preparing-47th-military-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-e200-million/
  “Obviously, these are massive volumes, totalling around €4.5 billion. For the scale of our country and our army, this is a very large amount.”

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EUROPE REARMS

Stories like these are soon going to become so frequent they will stop being news. The German Leopard 2 is probably the most successful main battle tank in Ukraine and The Netherlands is buying a lot of them. Meanwhile, Spain continues its plans to replace its aged inventory of equipment with the latest European-made weapons.

• Netherlands Orders 46 Leopard 2A8 Tanks
  https://militarnyi.com/en/news/netherlands-orders-46-leopard-2a8-tanks/
  “Given the current threat of large-scale conflict, the tank is an indispensable tool. And when you stand next to it, you immediately understand why. The Leopard is a powerful combat vehicle. It is the best that tank manufacturing has to offer today,” the Ministry stated.

• Spain Considers RCH 155 to Replace its Hundred Aging M109 Howitzers
  https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/spain_considers_radhaubitze_to_replace_its_hundred_aging_m109_howitzers-14472.html
  Spanish defense authorities have been developing plans to replace half-a-century-old M109 howitzers for over a year now, and here comes the likely candidate

Radhaubitze RCH155 self-propelled howitzer / Photo credit: GDELS

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As ever all comments and queries are welcome.