The Under Reported War 14 - May 25 2025
Today is Day 1,186 of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation
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After months of delays b y the U,S Abrams tanks owned by Australia are finally on their way to Ukraine / Australian Defence Force
Welcome to a weekly roundup of news from Ukraine you probably did not hear. All reports will be linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions or need more detail I’ll be happy to try to give you answers.
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Sunday 17th - Saturday 24th May 2025
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Here’s some things you probably did not hear about this week.
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BEHIND THE HEADLINES
Think tanks of the military variety are notorious for thinking in silos. It’s why, as Eliot.A.Cohen and Philips O’Brien showed in their 2024 study for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the vast majority of think tanks and pundits predicted Russia would not invade in 2022. Most were both ignorant of Ukraine’s strengths and over-exaggerated Russia’s capabilities. I cannot recommend this (short-ish) study highly enough. It gives great context the next time you hear some pundit talking authoritatively about Ukraine.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russia-ukraine-war-study-analytic-failure
A report came out this week from a highly influential London-based think tank. You probably won’t have heard what it said, but I can guarantee it will have a big impact in diplomatic circles. Sadly, the study seem more than a little over-heated in its claims and ignorant of facts from the battlefield. Sigh… welcome to The under Reported War.
The first is from International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
IISS: Russia Could Have 3,300 Tanks By 2027 But There's a Catch
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/iiss_russia_could_have_3300_tanks_by_2027_but_theres_a_catch-14576.html
“London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has published a study of Europe's capability to defend itself against the backdrop of the United States' shift of priorities towards Indo-Pacific interests.”
Facing Russia Alone: U.S. Withdrawal Would Force Europe to Acquire 400 Fighter Jets, 600 Tanks, and $300 Billion in Additional Arms
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/us_withdrawal_would_force_europe_to_acquire_400_fighter_jets_600_tanks_and_300_billion_in_additional_arms-14594.html
“According to a recent report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), around one-third of that amount (at least $344 billion) would need to be spent directly on weapons and military hardware. The list of required systems is staggering, including a minimum of 400 fighter aircraft and 600 main battle tanks, along with numerous other types of armament.”
As that first headline implies, the report is context-free. It also mis-interprets data significantly. Yes, Russia could build up huge armoured forces again. But only if the war stopped immediately and Ukraine ceased blowing up all their equipment at unsustainable rates. Which, of course, it is not minded to do. All those thousands of tanks? The figure includes refurbished ancient tanks from the 1950s which is pretty much all Russia has left in storage. The same is true of artillery. Of infantry fighting vehicles. Of almost every weapons category. Right now, Russia cannot replace its battlefield losses and only a small percentage of what replacements exist are newly manufactured.
Moving on to the second headline. It’s a bit baffling. The authors’ calculations are based on the assumption that Russia has the capacity to rebuild quickly. But there is little evidence for that other than official Russian claims. Basing your work on unverified claims from a government notorious for lying constantly seems foolish. They are not wrong about Europe needing to rearm, but to ignore the realities of warfare in Ukraine, particularly the revolutionary impact of drones on the frontline, in the air, and at sea seems odd.
A battered and noticeably old tank in a Russian armour repair plant / Open-source archive photo
A commentary just published by another London think tank, the Royal United Services Institute, is a good example of the unthinking desire to praise Russia whilst damming Ukraine by omission. It focuses o alleged Russian strengths (citing no evidence) and assumes Ukraine cannot overcome these notional threats even though it has done so successfully for the last three years. It is almost as if these analysts are victims of a dissociative groupthink where they see all the images of small-scale Russian assaults using civilian cars, buses, e-scooters, buggies, and motorbikes yet cannot comprehend how weak Russia has become in all but raw and barely trained manpower. However, it continues to excel at information warfare.
RUSI: Russia Will Strike Key Elements of Ukraine's Defenses Before Offensive on Kharkiv in Fall 2025
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/rusi_russia_will_strike_key_elements_of_ukraines_defenses_before_offensive_on_kharkiv_in_fall_2025-14612.html
“The British think tank RUSI has published an analysis of the prospects for this summer's offensive campaign, given Russia's intention to continue its war against Ukraine.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine is working with the Baltic nations to build the manufacturing capacity to field the swarms of drones which have levelled the battlefield and de-mechanised the Russian army.
Ukraine to Support Drone Factory in the Baltics Capable of Producing Hundreds of Thousands of UAVs Annually
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/ukraine_to_support_drone_factory_in_the_baltics_capable_of_producing_hundreds_of_thousands_of_uavs_annually-14571.html
“Despite limited defense budgets, Estonia and its Baltic neighbors continue to invest strategically in cutting-edge military technologies.”
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NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE
After the fall of Bakhmut two years ago(!) that sector of the front according to the pundits (see above) was due to collapse immediately. It didn’t happen. And still hasn’t. At their current rate of advance, the Russians continue to be on target to capture all of Ukraine in more than a thousand years. A snail could traverse Ukraine east to west in less time.
Russia lost 50,000 troops trying to take a Ukrainian town with 48 residents—but still failed
https://euromaidanpress.com/2025/05/17/russia-lost-50000-troops-trying-to-take-a-ukrainian-town-with-48-residents-but-still-failed/
“Ten months, 50,000 casualties, and still no breakthrough in Toretsk. Once home to some 30,000 residents in Donetsk Oblast, Toretsk is now nearly completely destroyed due to relentless Russian shelling. Before the war, it was a thriving industrial town with coal mines, a processing plant, a bakery complex, and several factories. Today, only 48 residents remain, according to regional authorities.”
Toretsk in ruins / Ukrinform
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As ever, I could list many video compilations showing the destruction being wreaked on the Russians by Ukrainian drones. As ever they continue to attack in the same old way and get beaten back by The Drone Line. Donald Hill at Sarcastosaurus made some interesting well-informed points on this matter:
Don's Weekly, 19 May 2025: Part 3
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-19-may-2025-part-3?utm_source=%2Finbox&utm_medium=reader2
“Some solutions for the current situation have already been found. The 414th regiment is one of the large drone units that successfully innovates and produces at scale. They kill Russians effectively and protect their soldiers while doing so.
Their commander says that in nine months they lost 20 soldiers while engaging 30,929 targets and killing or wounding 10,000 Russians. The Drone Line concept is designed to replicate these successes across the front lines but progress has been slow.
The battlefield is constantly changing. The faster Ukraine innovates and implements, the greater degree of control they will have over the battlefield.”
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An unusual video that never made it into the news bulletins was the high speed recovery of a Ukrainian armoured troop carrier missing one wheel.
Damaged But Not Destroyed: Ukrainian M1224 MaxxPro Brought to Safety From Behind Enemy Lines (Video)
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/damaged_but_not_destroyed_ukrainian_m1224_maxxpro_armored_vehicle_was_saved_from_behind_enemy_lines_in_a_stunning_feat_of_battlefield_recovery_video-14580.html
“Under enemy fire near Kupiansk, a Ukrainian soldier delivered a disabled armored vehicle to safety on three wheels and pure resolve in a stunning feat of battlefield recovery.”
The M1224 MaxxPro troop carrier is rescued on three wheels / Screenshot
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THE DRONE WAR (LATEST INNOVATIONS)
The cycle of innovation continues. New Russian smart munition and AI-powered drones were reported this week. Ukraine continues to build the technology to enable robot-led ground assaults.
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Russia Increasingly Uses New AI-Based Drones on the Frontline in Ukraine
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/russia_increasingly_uses_new_ai_based_drones_on_the_frontline_in_ukraine-14535.html
“Russians are increasing the number of attacks on the Ukrainian frontline using a new type of AI-powered UAV.”
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Combat-Proven Innovations: Gnom UGV Tested and Upgraded by Ukrainian Warriors
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/combat_proven_innovations_gnom_ugv_tested_and_upgraded_by_ukrainian_warriors-14558.html
“The Gnom robotic platform is being tested by a Ukrainian brigade and what upgrades it has received. On the battlefield, the Gnom’s mission is to maneuver into the enemy’s rear and deliver precision fire, targeting enemy bunkers, trenches, and fortified positions.”
The Grom UGV / Army TV
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THE DRONE & MISSILE LONG-RANGE WAR
With fighting on the front line producing little strategic impact other than high Russian casualties, the drone and missile war has become more important. Russia is firing record levels of drones and missiles at Ukraine. They seem to be aimed at cities with little or no precise targeting. Ukraine continues to target Russian air defences, refineries, and defence industry factories.
You might have read or heard about Russia’s missile bombardment of Ukraine, but you probably won’t have heard about Ukraine’s attacks.
Ukraine's Deep Strike Campaign Continues: 1,200 Drones in Four Days Reported by Russia
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_deep_strike_campaign_continues_1200_drones_downed_in_russia-14620.html
“Long-range attack drones hit the Energiya plant again and the Azot chemical plant producing explosives.
Social media feature footage of the attack on the Energiya plant was filmed by witnesses. This is the second attack on this facility in recent days, after the previous successful strike on the night of May 23… Targeting this plant.. [affects] the manufacture of glide air bombs.”
Drones repeatedly attacked Russia’s largest manufacturer of batteries for military systems
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/drones-repeatedly-attacked-russia-s-largest-manufacturer-of-batteries-for-military-systems/
“Strike drones repeatedly attacked the Russian company PJSC Energia, which is one of the main suppliers of components for the Russian defense industry.”
Drones Strike Military Electronics Plant in Russia
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/drones-strike-military-electronics-plant-in-russia/
“The Ukrainian Defense Forces drones attacked a Russian plant that produces electronics for electronic warfare systems. It should be noted that the facility specializes in the development and production of semiconductors and other electronic components, which are also used in Russian electronic warfare systems.”
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Ukraine lost another F-16 fighter this week. Apparently it was hit by debris from a drone it had just blown up with cannon fire. With luck, Ukraine will now cease such wasteful tactics.
Ukraine Situation Report: Third F-16 Viper Lost
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukraine-situation-report-third-f-16-viper-lost
“Unlike the two prior crashes, the Ukrainian F-16 pilot in this incident survived”
Interceptor drones are a far more cost effective way of taking down Shahed kamikaze drones.
New Video Captures the Moment Ukrainian Sting FPV Drone Intercepted and Eliminated Russian Shahed UAV from Behind (VIDEO)
https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and_tech/new_video_captures_the_moment_ukrainian_sting_fpv_drone_intercepted_and_eliminated_russian_shahed_uav_from_behind-14568.html
“Last week, Ukrainian FPV-drone community scored a striking victory against Russia’s Shahed drones. On May 19, the Wild Hornets group, which specializes in FPV drone operations, released raw footage showing Ukrainian Sting interceptor drone in action.”
And Russia is now using trainer aircraft as drone interceptors. This is the military of whom so many think tanks seem in thrall to. Ukraine did this out of sheer desperation but that apparently does not count if the Russians do the same.
Russia Testing Shotgun-Armed Yak-52 Trainer Aircraft To Down Ukrainian Drones
https://www.twz.com/air/russia-testing-shotgun-armed-yak-52-trainer-aircraft-to-down-ukrainian-drones
“WWI-style air combat tactics applied to the drone problem have been proven by Ukraine and are now being adopted in Russia, but using shotguns is questionable.”
Yak-52 with sensor turret / Screengrab
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Ukraine continues to punch holes in Russia’s air defences that their long-range drones can fly through on a near daily basis. Again, this destruction is at such a high rate that Russia cannot hope to replace these expensive and very complex weapons quickly.
Ukrainian Artillery Spectacularly Destroys Russian Buk-M1 Air Defense System (Video)
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_artillery_spectacularly_destroys_russian_buk_m1_air_defense_system_video-14539.html
“The destruction of Russian Buk-M1 SAM system with full ammunition marks a major success for Ukrainian forces in the area.”
The Buk M1 SAM system explodes / Screenshot
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THE DRONE WAR (THE NAVAL WAR)
Such is the revolutionary success of Ukraine’s naval drones that they are now in demand around the world. Establishing production in the US allows the Ukrainian manufacturer to sell to the US military.
Red Cat Will Assemble and Sell Ukrainian Magura V7 Naval Drones in the U.S.
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/red_cat_will_assemble_and_sell_ukrainian_magura_v7_naval_drones_in_the_us-14542.html
This is the first known export success of Magura sea drones, and entering the non-inclusive U.S. arms market shows that Ukrainian naval warfare innovation may soon start conquering the Pacific Ocean theater
Magura naval drones at a public presentation on May 14, 2025 / Defense Intelligence of Ukraine
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WAR CRIMES
CNN did some excellent if grim reporting this week.
Exclusive: Intercepted radio chatter and drone footage appear to capture Russian orders to kill surrendering Ukrainian troops
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/05/21/europe/russian-forces-ukrainian-troops-radio-chatter-intl-invs
“The radio communications intercepted by Ukraine, which were obtained by CNN from a Ukrainian intelligence official, appear to correspond in time with drone footage of a suspected execution by Russian soldiers in Ukraine’s eastern Zaporizhzhia region last November.
The footage shows six soldiers lying face down on the ground, with at least two being shot at point blank range and another being marched away.”
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FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE
Donations are currently low profile, perhaps not to annoy Trump. Whatever the reason, some important weapons donations were announced this week. Despite months of delays justified by feeble excuses, Australia is now supplying more M1A1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine thna the United States has.
Loading M1A1 Abrams tank onto a ship, August 2023 / Australian Defence Force
US allows Australia to send Abrams tanks to Ukraine despite private objections, media reports
https://kyivindependent.com/australia-sending-retired-abrams-tanks-to-ukraine-despite-us-objections-media-reports/
“Australian authorities have begun loading the first of the 49 decommissioned Ukraine-bound Abrams tanks onto a cargo ship despite continued private objections from U.S. officials, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) reported on May 19.”
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Italy is supplying four hundred obsolete but still functional VCC-2/M113 armoured personnel carriers. They are already used widely a field ambulances and supply transports on the frontline.
Italy’s 11th Aid Package: 400 VCC-2 Armored Vehicles Bound for Ukraine
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/italys_11th_aid_package_400_vcc_2_armored_vehicles_bound_for_ukraine-14567.html
“One country had a particularly large stockpile of armored personnel carriers (APCs) that were decommissioned before 2021, and it’s now sending them to Ukraine.”
VCC-2 in Ukraine / Open source
Almost unnoticed, but probably more significant news, Italy is sending a third SAMP/T missile system to help defend Ukraine’s cities from ballistic missiles. This is equivalent to the US PATRIOT system.
Italy to Send Another SAMP/T Air Defense System to Ukraine
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/italy-to-send-another-samp-t-air-defense-system-to-ukraine-media/
“Italy will provide Ukraine with a third SAMP/T air and missile defense system as part of its eleventh military aid package, Formiche reports.
The new package reportedly includes 400 M113 armored personnel carriers, ammunition, and an additional SAMP/T system — a key asset for countering persistent Russian missile strikes.
Italy will also continue supplying satellite reconnaissance support to monitor Russian troop movements, using its aerospace infrastructure in coordination with NATO.”
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The latest Belgian aid package includes a single ‘Frankentank’ on test. If it goes will Ukraine’s Leopard !s could be equipped with uncrewed automated turrets. Joint Ukrainian-Belgian production of laser-guided 70mm rockets planned since last year has also begun.
Belgium Tests Leopard 1 with Unmanned Turret in Ukraine: Potential Modernization of Over a Hundred Tanks
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/belgium_tests_leopard_1_with_unmanned_turret_in_ukraine_potential_modernization_of_over_a_hundred_tanks-14551.html
“Interestingly, the package also refers to the launch of domestic Ukrainian production lines for 70mm guided rockets. This likely concerns the FZ275 LGR developed by Thales Belgium: laser-guided 70mm rockets, previously mentioned in 2024 as part of a planned Ukrainian–Belgian defense industry partnership.”
Leopard 1A5 with Cockerill 3105 unmanned turret / Open source
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More state-of-the-art howitzers have arrived in Ukraine. This time from Czechia.
Territorial Defense Forces Receive Czech-Made Dana-M2 Self-Propelled Artillery Systems
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/territorial-defense-forces-receive-czech-made-dana-m2-self-propelled-artillery-systems/
“Artillery crews of Ukraine’s 122nd Territorial Defense Brigade have been equipped with Czech 152 mm wheeled Dana-M2 self-propelled artillery systems.
The brigade reported that personnel are currently undergoing training to master the new equipment.”
Dana-M2 self-propelled artillery system. May 2025, Ukraine / 122nd Territorial Defense Brigade
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Sweden is working with Ukraine to update the electronics of Ukraine’s ageing Soviet-era jets.
Swedish Avionics to Upgrade Ukrainian Jets Under New Defense Cooperation with SAAB
https://en.defence-ua.com/industries/swedish_avionics_to_upgrade_ukrainian_jets_under_new_defense_cooperation_with_saab-14615.html
“Ukraine and Sweden are advancing defense ties with a focus on integrating Swedish avionics into Soviet-era aircraft. This initiative includes upgrading radar systems, defensive measures, and electronic warfare capabilities.”
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EUROPE REARMS
After decades of under-investment the German army is under-equipped and under-staffed. That is about to change. A large exercise is underway in Estonia signalling NATO’s intention to defend the Baltic states. Artillery barrels wear out with use and need to be replaced frequently. Europe let its barrel forging industry go into decline after the end of the Cold War. Rheinmetall will open a new barrel forge in England in 2027. Britain and Germany plan to build a new long-range cruise missile that can strike Moscow from the UK. None of this would have happened if Putin had not invaded Ukraine. Putin really is a very great strategist.
Germany eyes strongest EU army by 2031
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-armed-forces-bundeswehr-eu-defense-spending-nato-trump/a-72570394
“German Chancellor Friedrich Merz plans to make the Bundeswehr the "strongest conventional army in Europe." Other EU countries also have ambitious plans for their armed forces. DW takes a closer look.”
Hedgehog 2025: NATO Drills with HIMARS, Challenger 2 tanks and Heavy Artillery to Deter Russia
https://en.defence-ua.com/events/hedgehog_2025_nato_drills_with_himars_challenger_2_tanks_and_heavy_artillery_to_deter_russia-14561.html
”Thousands of troops from more than ten NATO countries, hundreds of military vehicles, and scenarios simulating the defense against a full-scale invasion — the massive NATO exercise Hedgehog 2025 is gaining momentum in Estonia.”
Long-Range ‘Deep Precision Strike’ Missile To Be Developed By UK And Germany
https://www.twz.com/air/long-range-deep-precision-strike-missile-to-be-developed-by-uk-and-germany
”The weapon, which targets a 2,000km range, is spurred by the Russian threat and could emerge as a ballistic or cruise missile. Previous reports had suggested that the British were looking at developing a strike weapon that would have a range of about 2,000 miles, which would allow it to reach Moscow after a launch from the United Kingdom. The weapon was said to be a deterrent to Russian tactical nuclear missiles.”
Artist impression of the new missile / MBDA
Rheinmetall Confirms Location for New UK Barrel Plant
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/rheinmetall-confirms-location-for-new-uk-barrel-plant/
“German defense giant Rheinmetall has chosen the location for a new barrel production plant in the United Kingdom.
The new barrel production facility will be located in the town of Telford, England, and will be built as part of a strategic partnership with the UK Ministry of Defence under the Trinity House Agreement.
The new plant, known as Gun Hall, will launch production of artillery and tank barrels by 2027, restoring the United Kingdom’s capability to manufacture large-caliber barrels — a capacity that had been lost since 2016.”
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