The Under Reported War 15 - 8th June 2025 - PART I
Today is Day 1,201 of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation
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Sunday 25th May - Saturday 7th June 2025
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Tu-95 bomber explodes at Inanovo air base / Screengrab
Sorry everyone about skipping last week, I was in the middle of compiling the bulletin when I had to be rushed to hospital for surgery. Now appendix-free, I’m back in action. This dispatch covers under-reported events of the past two weeks.
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BEHIND THE HEADLINES
The biggest news of the year so far was Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb/Cobweb (no one seems completely sure how the Ukrainian word ‘Павутина’ translates). Humungous amounts of reporting followed the attack on Russia ‘strategic’ bomber fleet, but, even then, easily checked and very significant aspects of it were under-reported. Q: How hard is to pick up a phone and call a published expert on the Russian air force? A: Very easy but no one did.
Sigh… welcome to The Under Reported War.
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First of all, I’m going to list two fairly thorough chronologies of excellent reporting by specialist websites. No need to read them (but please do if you have the time), but they do contain (almost) all you might ever need to know about the operation.
The first chronology is from The War Zone:
Russian Strategic Bombers Destroyed In Unprecedented Wide-Scale Drone Attack (Updated)
UPDATED JUN 1, 2025 11:53 AM EDT
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-strategic-bombers-destroyed-in-unprecedented-wide-scale-drone-attack
The attacks that went after the heart of Russia's strategic aviation capabilities and one arm of its nuclear deterrent should serve as a global wake-up call.
What We Know About Ukraine’s Mass Drone Assault On Russian Bombers
PUBLISHED JUN 2, 2025 4:34 PM EDT
https://www.twz.com/news-features/what-we-know-about-ukraines-mass-drone-assault-on-russian-bombers
New details are emerging about how Ukraine pulled-off its highly-coordinated drone strike operation at multiple airbases in Russia.
Mass Drone Attack On Exposed Russian Bombers Puts Spotlight On Hardened Aircraft Shelter Debate
UPDATED JUN 2, 2025 8:05 PM EDT
https://www.twz.com/air/mass-drone-attack-on-exposed-russian-bombers-puts-spotlight-on-hardened-aircraft-shelter-debate
Ukraine's unprecedented covert drone operation serves as a dire warning as to the threat of drone attacks on unhardened airfields.
Latest On Russian Aircraft Loss Assessments From Ukrainian Drone Strikes
PUBLISHED JUN 3, 2025 3:46 PM EDT
https://www.twz.com/air/latest-on-russian-aircraft-loss-assessments-from-ukrainian-drone-strikes
The full extent of Russia's losses of bombers and other prized aircraft to Ukraine's unprecedented covert drone operation is still emerging.
Confirmed Losses Of Russian Aircraft Mount After Ukrainian Drone Assault
UPDATED JUN 4, 2025 1:06 PM EDT
https://www.twz.com/air/firm-evidence-of-russian-aircraft-losses-after-ukrainian-drone-strikes
Some of the bombers were armed with cruise missiles when Ukraine’s drones rained down on them.
Russia Executes Revenge Strikes Against Ukraine For Blowing Up Its Bombers
PUBLISHED JUN 6, 2025 1:23 PM EDT
https://www.twz.com/news-features/russia-executes-revenge-strikes-against-ukraine-for-blowing-up-its-bombers
Ukraine also launched a flurry of drone attacks it said were preemptive against long-range Russian aviation bases.
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This second chronology is from Defense Express. Note that its timeline starts in 2024 with a report that, as you will soon see, is very relevant.
AUGUST 2024
How Much Longer Will Russian Tu-95MS Bombers Keep Flying With Current Maintenance Capabilities
August 30, 2024
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/how_much_longer_will_russian_tu_95ms_bombers_keep_flying_with_current_maintenance_capabilities-11684.html
Even indirect evidence can help in analyzing the time left for Russian strategic aircraft before they reach the end of service life, cut off a stable supply of foreign technologies and spare parts.
MAY 2025
Foreshadowing what was to come, DE reported on the Siberian bomber bases a month ago. And, notably, got something critical wrong, but, unlike too many of their colleagues elsewhere, they then corrected it.
Russia's Belaya Air Base in Siberia Sees Buildup of Russian Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 Strategic Bombers and Possibly Kinzhal-Carrying MiG-31 Aircraft
May 6, 2025
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/russias_belaya_air_base_in_siberia_sees_buildup_of_Russian_tu_95ms_and_tu_22m3_strategic_bombers_and_possibly_kinzhal_carrying_mig_31_aircraft-14415.html
New satellite imagery indicates a continued buildup of Russian long-range aviation assets at the Belaya Air Base in the east of Siberia. The initial report, published by open-source analyst MT Anderson, highlighted the presence of 9 Tu-95MS bombers on the apron, with one either taxiing or recently landed.
Russia Has Over Forty Tu-22M3 Heavy Bombers at Belaya Airbase, Shuffles Tu-95MS and Tu-160s To and Fro (Updated)
May 15, 2025
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/russia_deployed_over_forty_tu_22m3_heavy_bombers_to_belaya_airbase_shuffles_tu_95ms_and_tu_160s_to_and_fro-14520.html
[Update} As later explained by AviVector, most of the Tu-22M3 aircraft deployed at Belaya are non-serviceable and only used as donors of spare parts:
"The number of Tu-22M3s at Belaya remains largely unchanged. Most of those observed at Olenya are donors, have been stationed there for a long time, and aren't actively used aircraft."
JUNE 2025
A lot of DE’s coverage matches TWZ’s so I won’t repeat it, but they have also followed up with some interesting reports.
Russia is Trying its Hardest to Hide Destroyed Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 at Airfields After Ukrainian Operation Spider's Web
June 4, 2025
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/russia_is_trying_its_hardest_to_hide_destroyed_tu_95ms_tu_22m3_at_airfields_after_ukrainian_operation_spiders_web-14744.html
With many strategic aircraft lost, all that's left for the Russians to do is swap the annihilated carcasses with the ones that survived and tell their audience that Tu-95MS, Tu-22M3 weren't even that important in the first place.
Russia Eyes its Tu-214 Airliner as Makeshift Bomber: Desperation or Design?
June 6, 2025
lhttps://en.defence-ua.com/industries/russia_eyes_its_tu_214_airliner_as_makeshift_bomber_desperation_or_design-14765.html
After losing key bombers to Ukrainian strikes, Russian propagandists propose converting the Tu-214 aircraft into a missile carrier, a concept riddled with technical flaws.
Could Go Wrong Any Moment: New Footage Shows How [Little] Time a Ukraine's Drone Operator Had to Strike the Russian Tu-22M3
June 8, 2025
https://en.defence-ua.com/analysis/could_go_wrong_any_moment_new_footage_shows_how_much_time_a_ukraines_drone_operator_had_to_strike_the_russian_tu_22m3-14788.html
A video showing the FPV drone flight from start to finish presents a new view at the individual challenges of landing an FPV drone hit on a Russian strategic bomber during Ukrainian Operation Spider's Web.
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Okay, so how much damage was done to Russia’s strategic bomber fleet? Its Tupolev Tu-160s, Tu-22s, and Tu-95s? That was, after all, the point of this operation.
Well, not as much as you might think if you heard the news but, at the same time, also a much higher than reported percentage of the bombers daily attacking Ukraine with missiles were destroyed.
How to explain this contradiction? Well, since all the supersonic Tu-160 bombers were left untouched, a big chunk of the strategic fleet went unscathed. And, unfortunately, although some Tu-22 Backfire bombers were destroyed, they are not strategic bombers. Their range is too short. They can, but very rarely do, attack Ukrainian cities any more. That’s because Russia has almost exhausted its supply of the supersonic KH32 cruise missiles that the Backfires carry. This leaves only the Tu-95 Bears (see pic of one exploding at top of this post). Currently, they launch the vast majority of the cruise missiles that target Ukraine.
Now in order for a bomber to be capable of firing those cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilians it has to be what military jargon calls Fully Mission Capable (FMC). Put more simply it has to be in good enough condition to take off, release its cruise missiles, and then return to base without its wings falling off. This has become a major challenge for the Russian Air Force (the VKS) in recent years. As Defense Express put it four weeks ago in its first report on the strange concentrations of bombers at Siberian air bases:
“As later explained by AviVector, most of the Tu-22M3 aircraft deployed at Belaya are non-serviceable and only used as donors of spare parts: "The number of Tu-22M3s at Belaya remains largely unchanged. Most of those observed at Olenya are donors, have been stationed there for a long time, and aren't actively used aircraft."
Unfortunately, an awful lot of these non-flying hulks were also blown up in the attack. Military aviation expert Tom Cooper over at his Sarcastosaurus Substack had plenty to say about this in two excellent pieces of research.
A Quick Review of the Russian Bomber-Fleet
https://substack.com/@xxtomcooperxx/p-165166827Bean-Counting
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/bean-counting
In these pieces, Cooper discusses how the VKS bomber force is structured and how many of the aircraft attacked were operational. This is part of his summary:
“The total [losses of operational aircraft] looks like this:
8 Tu-95MS (all 8 FMC, at least 6 loaded with Kh-101 [cruise missiles][at time of attacks]; this was between 70% and 100% of the ‘most often flown’ part of the Russian Tu-95MS-fleet, and thus the ‘best part’, ‘biggest success’ of this operation);
7 (perhaps 10) Tu-22M-3 (‘nice’, but not as important as knocking out Tu-95MS’)
2 A-50s (‘wasted effort’; both were non-operational for years and useless even as sources of spares)
1 An-12 (‘just a transport’)”
“[In] other words: ‘more than 50% of airframes that can be considered as regularly-FMC’ [were destroyed]… This is a loss the Russians cannot easily replace.”
So, it was definitely not 40% of the airworthy strategic bomber force that was destroyed, but very definitely 70-100% of the bombers that attack Ukraine’s cities almost every day. Russia has other cruise missile capable aircraft, but none as significant at the Tu-95 force.
A FPV drone circles above two An-50 early warning radar aircraft. Unfortunately the peeling paint, missing engines, and lichen-covered radomes show these were just hulks and not in any condition to fly. They were blown up anyway. / Screenshot
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Elsewhere in this war, the military analyst community has begun to realise that the pro-Kremlin talking point about a slow but relentless Russian advance that is crushing Ukraine does not stand up to scrutiny. That it’s taken so long is not a surprise when you consider more than ninety per cent of them were completely ignorant of the strength of Ukraine’s armed forces when the 2022 invasion began and indulged in some highly embarrassing doom-mongering.
Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine
https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-battlefield-woes-ukraine
“Russia has struggled in Ukraine. As this analysis shows, Russian military forces have failed to significantly advance on the battlefield, seized limited territory, lost substantial quantities of equipment relative to Ukraine, and suffered high rates of fatalities and casualties. Russia has paid an extraordinary blood price for seizing less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory since January 2024.”
Part of the mighty military machine that was allegedly going to grind Ukraine to dust. A burnt-out BTR armoured personnel carrier in Ukraine / Telegram
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I thought this next story was a joke. Or that it might be a Ukrainian psyop. It’s hard to say for sure. It’s surely not Russian misinformation since portrays them as complete dimwits. However, if it is real it shows how delusional Putin and the Kremlin have become.
This Russian military plan for 2025-26 envisions re-taking the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson and then capturing Ukraine’s entire coastline. Plus sweeping away all Ukrainian forces east of the Dnipro, and along the way capturing at least six major Ukrainian cities including Kharkiv, Kherson, and Odesa. The fact that Russia has failed to capture a single major city since the fall of Sieverodonetsk and Lysychansk in 2022 shows how absurd this is. Oh, and all of this is to be achieved by the end of 2026. And it is to be accomplished by an army now so demechanised it conducts attacks with bathtub-sidecar motorbikes, e-scooters, and looted civilian sedans.
A senior Ukrainian official reported that the Russian military intends to seize half of Ukraine by the end of 2026.
https://www.iswresearch.org/2025/06/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment_6.html
“The Russian military is likely unable to achieve its purported 2026 objectives, given the significant manpower and materiel losses Russian forces have sustained over the last three years of war and the Russian forces’ inability to achieve operational maneuver on the battlefield. Putin’s theory of victory depends on the Western alliance backing Ukraine, abandoning Ukraine as a necessary condition to bring about this scale of advance.”
Colonel Palisa’s map allegedly shows Russia’s plans for 2025-26 / ISW
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Moving on, Ukraine still has Nazis fighting for it. Both sides do, in fact. The Azov Brigade was the most prominent of Ukraine’s Hitler fan-boys at the start of the invasion. Its senior leadership was purged in 2023, but many neo-Nazis remained in its lower ranks, and Ukraine was so short of soldiers it was never going to dismiss them from the army. However, one now appears to have been promoted to command of Azov’s drone pilot battalion and he ain’t afraid to show his political allegiance. The usually excellent The War Zone published an interview with him about drone warfare. In every photo the Wolfsangel (badge of the notorious Das Reich SS war criminals) was displayed front and center.
I get really sick of how clueless and naive so many journalists are. TWZ was played completely by a neo-Nazi who had a good laugh at their expense. Sigh (again)! As ever, welcome to The Under Reported War where reporters are ignorant of what goes on under their noses.
Ukrainian Commander’s Exclusive Insights On Brutal Drone Warfare On The Frontline
https://www.twz.com/news-features/ukrainian-commanders-exclusive-insights-on-brutal-drone-warfare-on-the-frontline
The commander of Azov's Unmanned Systems Battalion shares the latest details about how tactics are evolving in the bloody Donbas region.
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In good news, the quarterly Eurobarometer survey of public opinion in thirty-seven European nations was published last week. Support for Ukraine remains solid. No sign of the much predicted collapse due to war fatigue. You probably won’t have heard this elsewhere, of course.
Standard Eurobarometer 103 - Spring 2025- 77% of European respondents agree that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to the security of the EU.
https://europa.eu/eurobarometer/surveys/detail/3372
In the face of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, 80% of European respondents agree with welcoming into the EU people fleeing the war, 76% agree with providing financial and humanitarian support to Ukraine. 72% of EU citizens support economic sanctions on the Russian government, companies, and individuals while six in ten approve of the EU granting candidate status to Ukraine and 59% agree with the EU financing the purchase and supply of military equipment to Ukraine.
And a Gallup poll of Americans shows a big surge in support too.
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BOOMS OF THE WEEK
It’s been a bad week for Russia’s Buk-M3 missile launchers. Two were destroyed on separate days and the resulting explosions are this week’s joint winners. As always, I hope that the crew of one of these were the ones who murdered the aircrew and passengers of Flight MH-17.
Two Buk-M3 combined radar and missile launchers explode spectacularly / Screenshots
Ukrainian Su-27 Strikes Russian Air Defense System with HARM Missile [Video]
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrainian-su-27-strikes-russian-air-defense-system-with-harm-missile-video/
A Ukrainian Su-27 fighter jet struck a Russian anti-aircraft system with an AGM-88 HARM missile while covering a strike group operation
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GRIMLY HILARIOUS MOMENTS OF THE WEEK
On Yandex, the Russian equivalent of Google Maps, sensitive military facilities and factories around Moscow are now blurred out. This draws the attention of Ukraine’s map analysts to sites that they might have missed beforehand. They do, of course, also have access to higher resolution satellite imagery than in the original maps so the whole blurring process is worse than pointless for the Russians.
The Avangard Missile Plant in Moscow’s Voykovskaya District / Screenshot
Yandex, Russia’s leading tech and mapping company, has inadvertently revealed the locations of sensitive military and defense industry sites in Moscow.
https://bsky.app/profile/noelreports.com/post/3lqukwlwpk22wBy applying visible blurring to these areas on its maps, the company made it easier to identify their exact locations.
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Oh dear, the GRU’s master cyber warriors left a treasure trove of their personal details and operations on an unsecured server.
Those not-so-secret-anymore GRU hackers / The Insider
GRU Hacker Unit Exposed After Journalists Access Unsecured Server
https://militarnyi.com/en/news/gru-hacker-unit-exposed-after-journalists-access-unsecured-server/
“Journalists have exposed a group of hackers linked to Russia’s military unit 29155 — part of the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, still widely known by its former abbreviation, GRU.
The unit is known for its involvement in the attempted poisoning of Sergei Skripal with Novichok.”
Hidden Bear: The GRU hackers of Russia’s most notorious kill squad
https://theins.press/en/inv/281731
“Russian GRU Unit 29155 is best known for its long list of murder and sabotage ops, which include the Salisbury poisonings in England, arms depot explosions in Czechia, and an attempted coup d’etat in Montenegro. But its activities in cyberspace remained in the shadows — until now.
After reviewing a trove of hidden data, The Insider can report that the Kremlin’s most notorious black ops squad also fielded a team of hackers — one that attempted to destabilize Ukraine in the months before Russia’s full-scale invasion.”
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That’s all for now. I’ll be back with Part II later in the week.
Thanks as always for reporting the stories I am not reading elsewhere. Slava Ukraini! ✌🏽🇺🇦