The Under Reported War Issue 34
Drones & robots dominate frontline / The Lima Line / The strange world of Russian milbloggers / Drone interceptor crew breaks record / Europe reaches hypersonic missile milestone
Welcome to the weekly roundup of news from the war in Ukraine you probably did not hear about for the week covering Sunday 8th to Saturday 16th May 2026.
By the way, today is Day 1,543 of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation.
All reports are linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions, detect errors and omissions, or need more detail, just let me know.
SOME HEADLINES THAT NEVER WERE
(BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN)
Welcome to The Under Reported War
TINY VILLAGE HOLDS FOR 1,500 DAYS AGAINST RUSSIA
After Russia’s initial invasion in 2023, Mala Tokmachka has been on the frontline ever since. Ukraine launched a failed counter-offensive from there in 2023, and it is where Russia’s counter-counter offensive ground to a halt this year.
Russia spent 1,500 days assaulting tiny Zaporizhzhia village of about 200 prewar residents without capturing it
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“The contrast undercuts Moscow’s image of a “mighty” army …”
ALERTED FOUR YEARS AGO, FRANCE ARRESTS TORTURER
Bad that it took so long. Bad that this was not a major headline outside Ukraine.
France arrests Russia’s war criminal who ran torture at “Donetsk Dachau”
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“Yevhen Brazhnikov participated in torture, cruel treatment of detainees, committed sexual violence, psychological pressure, and forcing confessions. At least nine victims have been documented so far.”
CHEERING HUNGARIAN CROWD GREETS EU FLAG
Putin (and Trump’s) stooge is gone. It’s a time of hope in Hungary after more than a decade of right-wing politicking and the corruption that always accompanies it.
The EU flag was raised above Hungary’s parliament for the first time since 2014
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“This marks a sharp visual break from Viktor Orbán’s long-standing EU-skeptical stance and signals a new tone in Budapest.”
NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE AKA THE DRONE WALL
Since drones are either directly or indirectly responsible for more than 95% of Russian casualties on the frontline, I think I might refer to this section as the ‘News from the Drone Wall’ in future bulletins.
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TRIUMPH OF THE DRONE WALL STRATEGY
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This time last year, there was a lot of sneering from pundits and think-tank wonks when Ukraine announced the Drone Wall strategy. Time has proved Ukraine right, and, as usual, its critics wrong. Amazingly I saw two think reports this week that still insist drones have not changed ground warfare. Some people never learn. And the psychology of why they don’t is fascinating. A myriad of learned PhD theses could be researched about how cognitive biases arise in think-tanks.
The Russia-Ukraine War: A Study in Analytic Failure
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“Thorough consideration of why responsible and expert analysts made egregious misjudgments is the best way to avoid a similar outcome in this part of the world or elsewhere. This report documents and explains a large, consequential failure.”
Written by two professors of strategic studies, Eliot A. Cohen and Phillips O’Brien, this is a succinct study of why quite so many experts got the outcome of Russia’s invasion wrong.
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NEWS FROM THE DRONE WALL
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Ukrainian officer: Russian frontline assaults now rare as 60-70% of infiltrators die before reaching Ukrainian lines
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“A Ukrainian senior lieutenant with the call sign “Alex” wrote on his Telegram channel that Russia can no longer gather enough troops for even local offensives, leaving small-group infiltration as the main remaining tactic.”
Russia is abandoning its push on Stepnohirsk where average mobilized Russian soldier survived 12 minutes
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“Russia threw elite units at Stepnohirsk. The average newly mobilized soldier lasted 12 minutes. Now Russia is leaving.”
A drone helped free 2 captured Ukrainian soldiers
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“Russian troops fled after the UAV appeared and abandoned the POWs. The Ukrainian soldiers then managed to return to their units. “
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GROUND ROBOT ROUNDUP
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Ground robot (UGV) with 300kg explosives demolish Russian occupied building
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“A Ukrainian ground robotic system carrying 300 kg of explosives struck a huge building sheltering a 8-man Russian sabotage group in Kostiantynivka. The blast almost completely collapsed the structure.”
Before anyone (including me) gets too excited about the possibility of Ukraine unleashing waves of thousands of UGVs to clear minefield, shoot down FPVs, and assault Russian positions in an offensive that achieves a decisive breakthrough, there are few mundane challenges that have to be first overcome.
Ground drone commander on why combat robots often don’t survive the first battle
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“Ground drones are often considered a big part of the future of warfare, but a Ukrainian commander says real battlefield conditions quickly expose their limits, from mud-clogged wheels to electronics failures and unreliable first missions.”
Losing contact with its operator when it drives into, for example, a hollow, is also quite common. Yet the success of UGVs cannot be denied.
Russia starved Pokrovsk into submission. Kostiantynivka’s robots are blocking the encore
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“Ukraine’s growing legion of resupply robots can prolong the defense of Kostiantynivka. But human soldiers are still necessary… “Fifty UGVs [destroyed], each costing a few tens of thousands of dollars, is a small price to pay to keep the Kostiantynivka garrison fed, fueled and armed. Manpower-starved Ukrainian forces can’t afford to lose drivers on the roads into Kostiantynivka, but they can afford to lose a few robots….
The Ukrainian garrison in Kostiantynivka blocks the most direct route for a Russian offensive toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. The Russians aim to starve the Kostiantynivka garrison, but Ukrainian ground robots keep the supplies flowing. The problem for the Ukrainians is that it still takes human infantry to hold Kostiantynivka, and those infantry are vulnerable during rotations in and out of the city.”
I just want to remind everyone that it is only handfuls of Russian soldiers infiltrating into Kostiantynivka. Russia no longer has the ability to project effective offensive power. Instead, it relies upon Ukraine calculating that, in a war of attrition, it is better to concede territory than to risk taking heavy casualties from glide-bombing. Ukraine has a lot of land. It can afford to do this and its strategy is working.
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IF YOU WATCH A VIDEO THIS WEEK, WATCH THIS ONE
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I highlighted this film in the last bulletin. Edited without commentary, the short documentary communicates the constant dread of drone attack as a small party attempts to make their way on foot into Kostiantynivka. UGV robots carrying supplies and evacuating the wounded trundle back and forth as they too run the gauntlet of Russian drones.
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“The road from Druzhkivka to Kostiantynivka has been dubbed the “road of death” — both civilians and soldiers have been killed along the way to this key eastern city…” After Russian forces brought it [in range of FPV] drones, traveling by car became too dangerous. “The main logistical artery has turned into a kill zone.”
You won’t find a better (and less bloody) way to get a sense of what life at the front is like for both sides.
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GLIDE BOMBING RESORTS TO QUANTITY OVER ACCURACY
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Ukrainian drones halted Russia’s spring advance. Russia is bombing back
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“It’s a race. Can Ukrainian drones deplete Russian forces faster than Russian bombs deplete Ukrainian forces?”
This reporting, although accurate on one level, lacks context. It misses out two vital pieces of this story’s jigsaw: the failure of Russia’s artillery and the Lima Line.
Ukraine’s long-range and middle strike drones have devastated many of Russia’s arsenals and hamstrung its ability to get munitions to the front line. Meanwhile, its FPV drones attack, disable, and destroy stupendous numbers of artillery pieces. Russia’s can no longer mass enough guns and shells to create the numbing barrages that led to the fall of major cities like Severodonetsk in 2022.
Instead, in 2024, Russia resorted to glide bombs. These are cheap satellite-guided bombs with snap-out winglets released at a safe distance behind the lines by Russian fighter-bombers. Glide-bombing has proved very effective replacement for massed artillery fire. Often hundreds of them impact Ukrainian positions along the 1,300km frontline every day. When the KAB satellite-guided glide bomb first appeared, it was thought there was no effective defence against it.
The main Ukrainian challenge is to counter the massive air guided bombs (KAB) campaign.
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“On the hottest area of the frontline (Hulialpole, Dobropilla and Sloviansk), Russia is constantly hitting everything with KABs. In total, I mapped 6,600 impacts for the last ~3 months on this 150 km long frontline.”
However, as Clement Molin notes, their accuracy has dropped. There is a reason for this: the Lima Line. Here’s Donald Hill again:
Don’s Weekly, 4 May 2026: Part 4 (Equipment)
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“In the first three months of 2026, Lima neutralized 26 Kinzhal [hypersonic] missiles, 33 cruise missiles, 10,000 Geran [Shahed] drones and 98% of the glide bombs. The Iskander missile is a tactical ballistic missile with a 500 km range and at least a 480 kg warhead. It is accurate to within 10 meters of the target, but under the influence of Lima they are missing by anywhere from 100 to over a thousand meters.
There is no other EW system [in the world] that can do what Lima does.”
Note the number of drones and percentage of glide bombs diverted off course. Russia’s precision glide bomb accuracy has dwindled to that of unguided artillery. Look at the map above. 98 out of a 100 of those red dots missed their target. Life on the frontline is still hellish. It would be far worse without the Lima Line.
THE LIMA LINE - UKRAINE’S FIRST AND BEST LINE OF DEFENCE
Ukraine quietly installed a chain of electronic warfare stations along the entire frontline over the last three years. Called the Lima Line, little is known about how it works precisely, but Lima is widely regarded by electronic warfare experts as without equal. It distorts navigation satellite signals in a missile or bomb multiple times, each time forcing it a little further off-course.
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As Patriots run low, Ukraine may have invented a new way to down Russia’s ‘unstoppable’ Kinzhal missiles
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“Ukrainian EW specialists say their Lima stations can divert Kinzhals by disrupting satellite navigation.”
Russia tried to overcame Lima’s jamming by quadrupling the number of Kometa-M satellite navigation antennas in their Shahed-style kamikaze drones, cruise missiles, KAB bombs, and ballistic missiles. It then increased the number to twelve. And now to sixteen. The more antennae a weapon has, the harder it should be for Lima to divert it off course. However, constant upgrades to the LIma Line have kept pace.
How Spoofing Is Diverting Russian Missiles Into Empty Fields
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“Ukraine’s Night Watch unit says its Lima Electronic Warfare systems is sending the Kinzhals astray, using a technique known as spoofing. Like a matador using a cloak to divert a charging bull, Night Watch makes Kinzhals miss by just enough to prevent damage.
“We create a wide navigation-denial zone and transmit a specific signal in binary format,” says the Nigh Watch source. “In certain flight modes, this produces severe anomalies in one of the missile’s channels, causing the autopilot to attempt stabilization while effectively ignoring other sensors.Kin”zal_Debris_LimaLine_01
Kometa-M Navigation Unit With 16 Antennas Found in Russian Iskander-K
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“During a recent combined missile strikes against Kyiv, the Russian forces employed ground-launched cruise missiles of the Iskander-K type (aka R-500 or 9M728) equipped with newly upgraded Kometa-M satellite navigation units featuring jam-resistant controlled reception pattern antennas (CRPA) with 16 element”
Of source there are no shortage of businesses in China willing to supply satnav antennae.
China’s Harxon Supplies Russia With Antennas for Geran Drones Disguised as Spare Parts for Combine Harvesters
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“These are CRPA satellite navigation antennas, which help the drones counter Ukrainian electronic warfare systems and lock onto targets more accurately.
Unlike conventional antennas, such systems can determine the direction of the interference source and filter out jamming, maintaining access to the satellite signal.”
THE STRANGE WORLD OF RUSSIAN MILITARY BLOGGERS
A lot of the information we get about life behind Russian lines is from milbloggers. They are an unruly bunch of ardent pro-war nationalist Russian bloggers who charged into Ukraine to chronicle on Telegram the supposed 3-day victory, but stayed to record defeat.
A few, including war criminal Igor Girkin, have been imprisoned for their criticisms (but not for war crimes of course). Russian authorities try to keep a tight rein on the rest, but it rarely works. Milbloggers are social media addicts. They cannot stop themselves from posting, and their criticisms are often accurate.
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DRONE DEFENCE VIA PRAYER
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Milblogger outrage over prayer card as drone defence
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“The text of the “Prayer against demonic drones” says: “O, Saint Barbara, the great martyr and patroness, look upon us who grieve and suffer from the demonic drones, that sow death and destruction.
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RUSSIAN FEVER DREAMS
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This is just a snapshot, but these Russian milbloggers are influential. If nothing more, this story shows just how distorted the worldview inside the ‘Russki Mir’ has become.
How Milbloggers See European & Canadian Support for Ukraine
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“With Donald Trump (”our Trumpushka”) increasingly seen as irrelevant to the war in Ukraine, Russian warbloggers are increasingly calling for “demonstrative strikes” on the EU, UK and Canada to force them to cease support for Ukraine and negotiate a peace settlement… This means launching demonstrative attacks on EU enterprises working for Ukraine’s military production, while using nuclear weapons as a shield from retaliation. Otherwise, no one in Europe will negotiate with Russia. ”
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THE PRICE OF CRITICISING PUTIN
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It’s interesting how the Russians who posted this don’t even try to pretend that being sent to a Storm-Z unit is anything other than a death sentence.
Russian milblogger sent to meat grinder
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“Recently, it was revealed that Egor Guzenko, the pro-war author of the “Thirteenth” channel, was sent into a “meat assault” for criticizing Putin, equipped only with a rusty rifle taken from a dead soldier.”
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CORRUPTION, BRUTALITY, AND MURDER
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Sometimes, milbloggers can expose scandals. Remember the milblogger outcry when two drone pilots were sent to the meat-grinder by their colonel (Issue 31)? Well, this is the guy. The publicity around that incident seems to have triggered an investigation.
Notorious Russian colonel Igor ‘Evil’ Puzik is once again making news for the wrong reasons
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“His regiment’s political officer is reported to have confessed to the FSB that he and the colonel were imprisoning and torturing their own men to extract money from them… Colonel Puzik, the commander of the 87th Motorised Rifle Regiment, is widely detested by Russian warbloggers, his own men, and their relatives, for his alleged corruption, brutality, and willingness to send men to their deaths or shoot them himself to shut them up. ”
RUSSIA’S ‘INVINCIBLE' WAR MACHINE’
NEWS FROM A THINK TANK WITH AN INTACT REPUTATION
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ISW: Russia’s grand territorial ambitions are divorced from battlefield reality
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“Russia’s “exaggerated territorial ambitions and aggressive territorial demands run completely counter to battlefield reality,” the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on 13 May. It can no longer forecast when Russia might seize the rest of Donetsk Oblast — or whether it can at all.
The think tank noted that Russian forces first infiltrated Kostiantynivka in October 2025 and have made no significant tactical gains in six months, even as Peskov restated Moscow’s withdrawal demand on four oblasts.”
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PUTIN IS CLEARLY NOT AN ISW SUBSCRIBER
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Russian Generals Promise Putin to Capture Donbas by Autumn
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“The Russian military leadership has convinced President Vladimir Putin that it can fully occupy Donbas by autumn.
According to the Financial Times, citing sources close to Putin and Ukrainian intelligence assessments, if Russia captures Donbas, Putin plans to “raise the price” of any potential ceasefire.”
This then got truly bonkers:
“According to sources, the Kremlin continues to consider the possibility of establishing control over a significant part of Ukraine, including Dnipro, Kyiv, and Odesa.”
You have to assume that this is for domestic consumption. By now, Putin cannot possibly be ignorant of his army’s abject failure to achieve anything except occupy a few fields and hamlets every month, with the occasional bonus of an unimportant town every once in a while. However, notoriously unwilling to take decisions, Putin seems paralysed by this failure. He should have declared mass mobilisation years ago, but has not. Meanwhile, every day that passes Ukraine gets a little stronger and Russia gets a little weaker.
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HOW RUSSIA SHOOTS ITSELF IN THE FOOT
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I’m going to cut-and-paste in two paragraphs from Don’s Weekly, 12 May 2026: Part 2 (Russia, Ukraine) because it sums up the insanity of Russia’s approach to this war. As ever, thank’s to Don and Tom for all their work:
How Russia Shoots Itself in the Foot
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“As early as September 2022, Russia formed four battalions from its army training staff to fill infantry shortages. In May 2024, Russia formed a regiment from the Aerospace Forces (VKS). Early-warning radar operators, technicians from jet and heavy bomber regiments were later deployed to Kursk in August. The navy also sent personnel to the Marines, and communications, sniper, air defense, strategic missile troops and other personnel were also sent to the assault infantry. By January 2026, a regiment of strategic missile personnel was located in Kursk, a VKS regiment was fighting in Sumy and a Baltic Fleet naval regiment was operating near Kostiantynivka. Units from other Russian fleets and army units have probably been formed, as well.”
In contrast, Ukraine quickly recognised that no matter how dire your manpower shortage, you can sometimes go too far and that has to be corrected:
“In January 2025, Ukraine followed in the Russian footsteps and sent aviation technicians and mechanics to form an infantry unit. [Army commander] Syrsky [then] banned the transfer of specialists, particularly in engineering and aviation, and the specialists were returned to the Air Force in February, while non-specialists stayed in the infantry.”
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PRISON PREFERABLE TO FRONTLINE
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Russian soldiers deliberately committing crimes to get sent to prison save their lives
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“I also think that if I’d gone to prison in ‘24, I’d be out a free man by now, heh. “
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ONE-WAY TICKET TO DEATH
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Russian soldier fighting in Donbas provides a gloomy picture of life on the front lines
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“A constant flow of doomed stormtroopers go on one-way trips, drones make logistics a game of Russian roulette, and thirsty men drink from muddy, corpse-filled holes. “
THE MIDDLE STRIKE
It’s been another busy week for Ukraine’s middle strike drones with hundreds of transport truck destroyed. Here are a few highlights:
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Ukraine Has A Truck-Hunting ‘A.I.’ Drone. It Needs Very Little Help From Its Operators.
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“The Swift Beat Hornet appears to communicate via a Starlink-boosted mesh radio network.”
The use of the term ‘AI’ in this report more than a little over-heated. Machine-recognition chips are no more ‘AI’ than the lidar in your car’s windscreen which turns on the wipers when it rains.
Ukraine’s AI Drones Are Hunting Russian Supply Lines
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“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 5 that Ukraine is now carrying out twice as many mid-range strikes at distances beyond 20 kilometers as it did in March, and four times as many as in February.”
First known use of unguided air-to-surface rockets from Ukrainian aerial drones (Video)
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“Ukrainian FP-1/FP-2 strike drone launching an unguided air-to-surface rocket at a Russian mobile air defense group during the overnight raid on Crimea.
Ukrainian Drones Hit Russian PRV-16 and P-18 Radars, Fuel Depot, Arsenal, and Troop Positions in Donetsk (Video)
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“Among the most significant targets were the Soviet-designed PRV-16 radar altimeter and the P-18 early warning radar station. PRV-16 system is primarily used to determine the altitude of aerial targets and assist enemy air defense units with missile guidance and target tracking. Destroying or disabling such equipment can significantly complicate the operation of integrated air defense networks.
The second radar, the P-18, is a meter-band surveillance radar widely used for the early detection of aircraft, cruise missiles, and drones. Despite its Cold War-era origins, the system remains valuable due to its ability to detect low-observable and low-flying aerial targets at long distances. Its loss weakens Russian situational awareness and reduces reaction time against Ukrainian aerial operations”
Ukrainian Drone Units Cripple Russian Air Defense, Communications, and UAV Command Posts Across Front (Video)
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“Ukrainian drone operators struck Russian Tor air defense system, Redut-2US communications system, UAV command post, and enemy communications node in coordinated attacks spanning Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions.”
UKRAINE’S LONG-RANGE WAR
RYAZAN GETS A RETURN VISIT
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Ukrainian strikes on Ryazan refinery damage AVT-3, AVT-4, & AT-6 Towers
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“Ukrainian strikes on Ryazan refinery damaged multiple processing units including AVT-3, AVT-4, AT-6 and a diesel hydrotreatment facility, Ukraine’s General Staff reports. The refinery is one of Russia’s largest and supplies fuel to occupying forces.”
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WHY ARE AVT TOWERS SUCH IMPORTANT TARGETS?
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AVT towers are the tall distillation structures that condense and separate off all the different grades of petroleum from crude oil, including gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel.
They are tricky targets to hit, but without functioning condenser towers, the rest of a refinery can be undamaged but lie useless. The increase in Ukrainian drone accuracy this year is reflected in the sheer number of AVT condensers damaged and destroyed.
DniproOsint analysis confirms strikes on 10 AVT units at Russian refineries since the start of the year.
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“AVT units are core refinery systems, and when disabled, a refinery can fully stop or sharply reduce output. The attacks caused about 1.5 million tonnes of underprocessed oil”
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THE HITS KEEP COMING
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Ukraine appears to be going after the Linear Production and Dispatching Station (LPDS) hubs that maintain the flow of crude oil and refined products in Russia’s pipelines. A LPDS outside distant Perm was attacked repeatedly two week ago. This week, a hub in Bashkortostan to the south of Perm was struck. The intent is clear: cut the supply lines to European Russia from the Siberian oilfields.
One Of The Largest Siberian Oil Pumping Hubs In Russia Is On Fire In Bashkortostan
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“A large-scale fire has broken out at the Nurlino Linear Production and Dispatching Station (LPDS) in the Republic of Bashkortostan, which is part of the Transneft network.
The facility, located near Ufa… [is] one of the largest hubs in the Transneft system. This facility transports oil from the Urals and Western Siberia to Novorossiysk, Tuapse, Taman, and refineries across southern Russia.
Drones struck the “Tamanneftegaz” oil terminal and the Port of Taman on Russia’s Black Sea coast
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“The facility, located on the Taman Peninsula more than 300 km from the frontline, plays a major role in Russian oil and fuel export logistics”
Gazprom’s Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant Halts Fuel Production After Drone Attack
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“The Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant operated by Gazprom stopped producing automotive fuel after a drone attack on May 13. The strike caused a major fire at the facility, forcing the shutdown of its main processing units.”
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EPIC RANT FROM RUSSIAN MILBLOGGER
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Where are Russia’s interceptor drones? Russia does have some and Ukraine’s long range drones are slow. They should be easy targets. It tuns out having interceptors and having interceptors that work reliably are two different things.
Russia has the Yolka interceptor drone, its not very good
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“Not allowed in the rain, not allowed at night, not allowed if facing the sun. If a bird flies between the Yolka and an enemy UAV, the Yolka [locks] onto it. It can simply get knocked off course…
And it’s quite fragile. Considering the emphasis is on a kinetic strike, we need to increase the speed. I have a video where they launched the Yolka and hit it, but the enemy UAV only temporarily lost control and altitude. Then it leveled out and flew on.”
RUSSIA’S LONG-RANGE WAR
RECORD NUMBERS ATTACK, RECORD NUMBERS SHOT DOWN
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You might have seen footage of the largest Russian drone strike of the war on Wednesday. What you almost certainly will not have seen is how many drones and missiles Ukraine shot down. It was a phenomenal achievement (see Lima Line above).
STING interceptors shot down more than 300 aerial targets yesterday and overnight
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“STING alone shot down more than 300 aerial targets during yesterday and the past night. The record for the highest number of interceptions by a single crew was also broken twice., with one crew alone credited with 120 targets.
Russia launched around 1,428 drones against Ukraine over a 24-hour period. This marks the largest drone attack of the war so far.”
Here are the tallies released by the Ukrainians spanning 13th May and overnight into the 14th.
“Ukraine air defenses downed or suppressed 710 of 753 Russian
drones from 08:00 to 18:30, after 139 more overnight.
More than 892 UAVs attacked in one day, mainly
targeting western regions, with Russia
routing drones through Belarus
and Moldova”
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“Shot down: 652/675 Shahed and other type drones
0/3 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
12/18 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles
29/35 Kh-101 cruise missiles
The impact of 15 missiles
and 23 drones on
24 locations was
recorded.”
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Btw, don’t let anyone tell you these figures are propaganda. Ukraine only counts what is confirmed on video. When they have bad days and the numbers shot down fall, they don’t hide that.
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UKRAINE’S HOME-GROWN ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE
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With Trump strangling the supply of Patriot missiles to Kyiv, Ukraine is desperately short of weapons that can shoot down Russia’s ballistic missiles effectively.
During the Cold War, Ukraine was home to an important part of the Soviet Union’s defence industry, particularly in aviation and rocket technology. It has the technical expertise to build its own missiles and it is doing so.
Details of the Freya Anti-Ballistic Missile Project
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“The project’s goal is to create a unified pan-European secure air and missile defense system. To this end, the FP-7.x interceptor missile was developed, made from composite materials, which significantly reduces the cost per shot. In February, the company demonstrated tests of the missile.
[It has] a claimed speed of 1,500-2,000 m/s. The system aims to cut ballistic missile interception costs below $1M, with a first intercept planned by the end of 2027.”
RUSSIA’S INFORMATION WAR
This is the only kind of warfare in which Russia is truly unsurpassed.
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AfD-PUTIN LOVE-IN
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‘Useful idiot’ is an espionage term of art created in the 1950s by the KGB to describe fellow travellers motivated through self-interest or political beliefs to spread lies unwittingly. ‘Tankies’ (far leftists who admire Putin’s Russia) and fascists (far rightists who…. well, you know the rest) supply the current crop of the political variety of useful idiots. Easily alarmed journalists and think-tank wonks make up the bulk of the remainder.
Wieidel the Charming Weasel
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“AfD leader Alice Weidel said Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia threaten Germany’s security, warning against “poking the big bear” and claiming Berlin’s Ukraine policy has raised risks for Germans. She promised a “balanced” security policy if her party comes to power.”
Everything she stated is a Kremlin-generated and amplified talking point.
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‘THE ECONOMIST’ REPEATS KEY RUSSIAN TALKING POINT
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If any reader is wondering why I report on this under reported war, it is in part because of empty-headed journalism by otherwise experienced journalists who just do not take the time to check out what they are told. It allows Russian information warfare talking points to seep in across the media. This next report is a pretty good summary of the state of the war. Mostly.
Russia is Stumbling on the Battlefield
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“As casualties soar in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin looks ever more beleaguered at home.”
In this otherwise good piece in The Economist, I was flabbergasted by this quote:
“Another concern is whether Russia is husbanding its forces for a big offensive in the summer.”
The anonymous (that too is a warning sign) author fell for a classic piece of Russian active measures. Since 2022, every time a Russian offensive has floundered then collapsed (as they all do), this evidence-free line is repeated by journalists around the world. They don’t know where it comes from, but it is too seductive a narrative to bother checking, and so Russian information warfare gains another little victory. Russia scattered this tidbit yeas ago, and its information warfare officers at the GRU will be celebrating its re-appearance in such a prestigious publication. It undermines the entirety of the rest of the report. This is how effective active measures are.
You’d expect ‘The Economist’ to fact-check, especially when Russian information warfare is so insidious. Apparently not. Such a shame.
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RUSSIA HAS FEW POSITIVE VIDEOS SO IT IS DEEP FAKING THEM
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Russia Floods Info Space With AI War Videos as Gains Stall – ISW
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“Russia is increasingly using AI-generated videos to fake battlefield gains in Ukraine, including staged flag-raising clips, according to the ISW. Analysts said the campaign grows as real advances slow...
[Russia is] deploying AI-generated videos and deepfakes as part of what Ukrainian officials describe as a coordinated psychological warfare campaign aimed at distorting reality and manipulating different audiences.
Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CDD), citing research by Sensity AI, says more than 1,000 synthetic videos have been identified as part of a structured “narrative kill chain” – a modular disinformation system designed to target specific groups, including soldiers, civilians, and Western audiences.”
The deep fake videos don’t have to be great quality—the one linked to below certainly is not—they are there to appeal to a pre-existing narrative the viewer wants to be true.
CORRUPTION SCANDALS
Zelensky’s former second-in-command, Yermak, charged in major corruption probe
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“President Volodymyr Zelensky’s former chief of staff has been charged with money laundering tied to the construction of a luxury residential compound outside Kyiv, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) said in a statement.”
GRIMLY HILARIOUS MOMENT OF THE WEEK
MAYDAY MADNESS
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Russian warblogger imagines how a true Mayday parade could have been
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“If yesterday’s Victory Day parade had been a true reflection of Russia’s frontline army as it is now, it would have been a chaotic display of battered vehicles, motorbikes, exhausted soldiers on crutches, and donkeys.”
Here’s that Victory Day parade in full:
FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE
TWO PREDICTIONS, GULP!
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I don’t like making predictions, but here are two that are sure to come true.
First, over the next year, you will see and hear endless professional pundits saying Europe is not learning the lessons it needs from the war in Ukraine.
Second, you will also hear them say that Europe is not adequately funding Ukraine’s resistance to the invasion.
Pundits’ ignorance and lack of curiosity in finding out what is really going on continues to astound, but this is, after all, The Under Reported War.
Ukraine has built the world’s most battle-tested defense industry. Berlin plugs in with “Brave Germany”
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“Germany and Ukraine just signed a joint defense technology program, and Berlin is already funding a third of everything Ukraine has…”
Ukraine and Germany are launching joint development and production of drones with ranges from under 100 km to 1,500 km, Pistorius said in Kyiv. Berlin also plans to join Ukraine’s Brave1 defense innovation platform and study Ukrainian battlefield systems.
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UKRAINE IS NOT DEPENDANT ON AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE
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For years, the UK, France, and Finland (which operates its own commercial ICEYE spy satellites) have been supplying Ukraine with signals and surveillance intelligence (ISR). America does this too, of course, but very little lately.
ISR Cell Is Solution From ICEYE - Integrated Into Infantry Brigade
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“Containerized intel hub cuts satellite imagery cycle from hours to minutes with AI analysis, tracking Severomorsk base and S-300 sites.”
ICEYE has built a containerised hub where, in a recent exercise in France, it demonstrated near real-time imagery and data analysis of missile launchers in Belarus.
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THERE ARE SHELLS, AND THEN THERE ARE SHELLS
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Extended range shells are more expensive than standard rounds. Joint productions of them is sensible.
Ukraine and Norway to Jointly Produce Long-Range 155 mm Artillery Shells
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“These shells can strike targets more than 40 kilometers away, increasing artillery range and improving counter-battery operations against enemy guns and positions.
“Kill zones are expanding, and drones of all types remain a priority. But soldiers themselves say that artillery is still needed – especially long-range artillery,” Zelensky said.”
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GERMANY FUNDS TRAINING INITIATIVE
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Pistorius: Germany to Fund Military Training Centers in Ukraine
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“Germany will allocate over EUR 10 million to an EU initiative to establish military training centers in Ukraine.”
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US DEPENDENCE WEAKENS FURTHER
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Europe doesn’t make missile defenses at scale. Thirteen countries just joined Ukraine to fix that.
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“Thirteen European countries and NATO met in Kyiv on 12 May to launch coordinated anti-ballistic missile production—a shift from US Patriot dependence.”
See Fire Point FP-7 story earlier (‘UKRAINE’S HOME-GROWN ANTI-BALLISTIC MISSILE’).
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CZECH AMMO PIPELINE FLOWS WITHOUT CZECH GOVT CASH
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Czechia’s artillery initiative was set up in late 2024 when the US Congress suspended military aid to Ukraine. The initiative aimed to and surpassed the subsequent shortfall in artillery munitions. In 2025, 1.8 million shells were delivered.
Babiš didn’t scrap Czechia’s shell pipeline to Ukraine—he just stopped paying for it
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“Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš ran for office vowing to scrap Ukraine’s biggest ammunition pipeline. In power, he kept it running and stopped paying for it,…
New Czech government keeps program running, but external donors now carry the full cost.”
I should point out that other countries donate far more than Czchia ever did. Also, from that report:
“While Prague pulls back, Czech donors are giving more. The “Dárek pro Putina” drive—“A Gift for Putin”—had raised €41 million ($48 million) from 360,000 donors by September 2025.”
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GERMAN DRONES TO HUNT RUSSIAN AIR DEFENCES
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Specialist drones to search out Russia’s air defences and electronic warfare installations are being developed. It’s a good idea. Hunt down Russia’s defences first and, as we are now seeing, it opens the way fro devastating attacks on Russian supplies.
German-Made Quantum Systems Drones Will Hunt Russian Air Defense and EW Systems
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“In practical terms, the cooperation enables Quantum Systems UAVs to evolve into airborne electronic reconnaissance platforms capable of detecting and identifying enemy air defense and electronic warfare assets…
The companies have not disclosed which specific UAV or ground platforms will receive the new payloads.”
EUROPE REARMS
MORE EUROPEAN MISSILES
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Europe Races to Build Its Own Long-Range Missiles After Trump Scraps US [Tomahawk cruise missile] Deployment Plan
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“Rheinmetall and Destinus announced a new joint venture to produce cruise missiles and ballistic rocket artillery starting in late 2026 or early 2027, as Europe accelerates efforts to strengthen its own strike capabilities following a major shift in US policy.”
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NIGHTFALL TEST PASSES HYPERSONIC MILESTONE
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From concept to launch in 9 months a British-German startup just flew hypersonic missile at 7,400 km/h
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“In February 2026, just months after UK said such weapons could boost Ukraine’s firepower. Mach 6 and 300 kilometers: Europe reaches sovereign hypersonic milestone.
Nightfall’s company Hypersonica launched from Andøya Spaceport in Norway, with the missile hitting over 7,400 kilometers per hour.”
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PORTUGAL’S DEFENCE INDUSTRY EXPANDS
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Portugal just hit highest defense-industry growth since 1986
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“Nearly 100 new defense companies created in 16 months.”
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CZECHS TO INCREASE SPENDING
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Czechia to Increase Defense Budget Amid U.S. and NATO Pressure
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“The Czech government plans to increase this year’s defense budget to meet its NATO commitments. Prime Minister Andrej Babiš’s cabinet aims to raise military spending to 2% of the country’s GDP.”
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SOUTH KOREAN HIMARS GETS MORE SALES
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Many NATO nations are looking for alternatives to the US HIMARS rocket system
K239 Chunmoo Sweeps Europe: Norway Orders $2B MLRS With Polish Production Line for Continental Customers | Defense Express
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“Norway will start receiving South Korean K239 Chunmoo MLRS already in 2028 and will deploy fully combat-ready systems over 4 years”
Estonia Orders More K239 Chunmoo Systems, Increasing Pressure on russia’s Baltic Fleet
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“Estonia is set to field a total of 18 modern precision-guided rocket artillery launchers, including both K239 Chunmoo and M142 HIMARS systems capable of firing guided rockets and ballistic missiles.”
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FRANCE HAS A HIMARS ALTERNATIVE TOO
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HIMARS Faces New Rival: France Tests FLP-T 150
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“France has test-fired its second domestic alternative to HIMARS’s GMLRS-ER for the first time. This refers to the FLP-t 150 rocket munition, which is being developed by Thales and ArianeGroup to replace the older M270 LRU multiple launch rocket systems.”
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UK REPLACES ARTILLERY DONATED TO UKRAINE
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Wheels are preferred to tracks these days. The war in Ukraine has shown that to survive drone attacks, a mobile howitzer cannot afford to get bogged down. It has to move fast after firing. The RCH 155 appears to be the best of the bunch of the new ‘shoot-and-scoot’ models. The UK also kept hold of its towed artillery which again Ukraine has shown to be resilient to drone attacks. Cheaper to replace too.
United Kingdom Orders 72 RCH 155 Self-Propelled Artillery Systems
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“The United Kingdom has ordered 72 new RCH 155 wheeled self-propelled artillery systems (SPAS) to replace the AS90s transferred to Ukraine. The contract provides for extensive local production… The contract is valued at nearly £1 billion ($1.3 billion) and includes, in addition to the purchase, crew training and in-service maintenance support.”
That’s all for now. See you next week.
Hopefully, Taiwan is adequately paying attention and going to school on what works defending against a powerful, aggressive, evil neighbor. We know that what DOESN’T work is depending on the current United States as an ally and source of a dependable flow of effective systems, especially now with Mr t gushing over his wonderful relationship with Mr Xi.
Simply stunning what Ukraine has been able to do without support from the US. These other countries, like the Czechs, are stepping in when they have fewer resources. “Better America“ applauds all of these proofs of the humanity the world needs, to oppose the Trump regime and the cruelty it exudes.