Welcome to a weekly roundup of news from the war in Ukraine you probably did not hear about.
All reports are linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions, detect errors and omissions, or need more detail, just let me know.
Here are some of the things you probably did not hear about for the week covering Sunday 12th to Saturday 18th July 2026.
By the way, today is Day 1,606 of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
“Oil exports remain the biggest source of cash for Russia’s war, and Ukraine has spent 2026 attacking that revenue, where Western measures have left the money moving. Ukraine keeps targeting Russian oil refineries, oil pipelines, depots, export terminals, and tankers. Forcing Moscow to defend its own oil exports at sea makes every shipment slower and costlier, compounding a fuel crisis already reshaping daily life inside Russia.”
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Yiri Zoria, Euromaidan Press, 16th July 2026
Sums up this week very nicely.
HEADLINES THAT NEVER WERE
(BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN)
As ever, welcome to The Under Reported War.
REFORMIST DEFENCE MINISTER SACKED IN CLASH
WITH OLD SCHOOL COMMANDER
Undoubtedly the most significant story of the week. There is a lot to unravel here. Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov is young, uninfluenced by the Soviet past, and a tech-focused reformer. In his short six-month tenure, Fedorov was also praised for pushing through much-needed pay and contract reforms in the Ukrainian army. For this, and his championing of technological innovation, he won widespread support from the rank-and-file in the armed forces and the Ukrainian public.
General Oleksandr Syrskyi is the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s armed forces and the hero of Kyiv in 2022 when he drove Russia into retreating from the nation’s capital. For the last three years he has been the Commander-in-Chief. It is fair to say that his time in the job has been a mixed success.
Very slowly, oh so painfully slowly, Syrskyi has overseen the army’s transformation of its old Soviet-style ‘top-down’ chain of command into the creation of army corps where one general has command of all the units along a distinct section of the frontline. In the Soviet system, initiative was not just disapproved of, lower-ranking officers were punished for using it. Orders trickled down from the top. In Ukraine’s new army, corps commanders are allowed, in theory, to react immediately to a Russian attack instead of passing the buck up the chain of command. It is a good system, and where it is well-implemented, it has been a success.
Syrskyi trained in the Red Army. He absorbed its doctrine and whilst, to his credit, he seems to understand the need for reform, he just can’t stop himself from Soviet-style micro-managing. His response to a Russian offensive was and is to ‘fire-fight’. He brok up successful units elsewhere so he could pull in battalions from all along the 1300km frontline to counter a new offensive. Often he fed them piecemeal into meat-grinder battles in towns like Bakhmut, Vuhledar, Pokrovsk, and many more. Frequently, these units did not know who was fighting alongside them, let alone how to co-ordinate or even communicate with them. Any local initiative taken in reaction to terrain and conditions on the ground was punished. As a result they took far higher casualties than was necessary, aggravating Ukraine’s manpower shortage, and throwing away years of hard-won battlefield experience.
As command and control became more decentralised with the introduction of the corps system, it became harder for Syrskyi to conduct this disjointed top-down ‘fire-fighting’. Instead, he developed the Assault Regiments. These are units held in reserve and rushed to any hot spots on the frontline. Syrskyi retains direct control of them although this then defeats the whole idea of army corps. Once again, unfamiliar units end up fighting alongside each other. Once again unnecessary casualties are inflicted.
Fedorov objected to all this and wanted Syrskyi dismissed. And now he has been sacked, allegedly at the behest of Syrskyi.
Zelensky dismisses Defense Minister Fedorov, deepening turmoil in Ukraine’s military leadership
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“As defense minister, he focused on scaling defense technologies, reforming military IT systems and developing unmanned platforms.”
Lies, isolation, blocking: Fedorov names 11 major problems he found in Defence Ministry
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“Acting Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has said he identified 11 major problems in the management of the defence forces and the system of power when he joined Ukraine’s Defence Ministry six months ago.”
Fedorov on military chief Syrskyi: he [is] focused on splitting Ukraine instead of finding ways to defeat Russia
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“Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has said he called for Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, to be replaced, but President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did not agree. According to Fedorov, all the Defence Ministry’s proposals to improve the armed forces’ operations on the front line encountered resistance from the commander-in-chief.”
Ukraine being a hard-won democracy and the decision to fire Federov being unpopular, protestors have taken to the street. The deputy commander of the air force has resigned in support of Fedorov.
Massive protests hit Ukraine today over the decision to dismiss Defense Minister Fedorov
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“Demonstrations are happening in Lviv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odesa, Kyiv, Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, and Kryvyi Rih.”
‘Changes are definitely coming’ — Ukrainians take to streets for 3rd day of protests over military leadership crisis
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“The firing of the popular defense minister after only six months in office sparked public outrage, with soldiers, veterans, activists, and everyday Ukrainians sounding the alarm on a crisis in the country’s military leadership.”
Air force deputy commander resigns in protest
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“Pavlo Yelizarov, a deputy commander of the air force, [said] he had joined the armed forces in 2022 to win the war, not to imitate activity, and warning that stalling Fedorov’s air-defense reforms would let more Russian missiles and drones through. He called the dismissal grave harm to the country’s defense but said he would stay in uniform.”
It’s a mess. But Zelensky has responded to protests like this in the past. A year ago, protests forced Zelensky to reverse course on removing the independence of two popular and successful anti-corruption agencies. Zelensky is a lot more complex than the simple ‘good guy’ portrayed by western media. He is that of course. But he is other things too.
RUSSIA FOILS REPEAT OF ‘OPERATION SPIDERWEB’
Since the ‘Spiderweb’ attacks last year, Russia has kept its strategic bomber fleet out of range of Ukraine’s drones. It is now based either in the High Arctic or in the Russian Far East. Russia claims that balloons and cargo drones were used to smuggle FPV drones across the frontlines to be used to attack those distant bases.
Russia says it seized Western-made, AI-powered drones prepared for attacks in Urals, Far East
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“Russia’s KGB successor, the FSB, said on Monday that it had seized Western-made, AI-powered FPV drones that had been dropped onto Russian territory by larger Ukrainian fixed-wing drones and balloons, and were intended to be used for attacks deep inside Russia.
The FSB said [the attack drones were] landed Bryansk region close to Ukraine, and then Ukrainian agents had transported the drones in trailers, fitted with false bottoms and loaded with household appliances, across Russia to the Chelyabinsk region in the Ural Mountains and the Amur region in the Far East… It said the plan was to strike the Shagol and Ukrainka air bases in those regions, adding that the perpetrators had been detained.”
OSINT researcher, AviVector keeps a daily tally of which bombers are based at which airbase. They are in constant rotation to keep Ukraine guessing. However, Ukrainka in Siberia had a particularly large build up this week.
Satellite images of Ukrainka Air Base as of July 16, 03:04 UTC
The air base housed 37 Tu-95MS (Bear-H), 8 Tu-160M (Blackjack), and 2 Il-78M (Midas). Yesterday, two Il-76MD from Dyagilevo Air Base arrived at Ukrainka Air Base.
A MARRIAGE MADE IN HEAVEN
AFD POLITICIAN TO LEAD PUTIN’S GERMAN BATTALION
Former AfD Member Murat Dadaev to Form German Battalion Within the Russian Armed Forces
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“Murat Dadaev (also known as Noah Krieger), a former member of the German right-wing populist party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), announced the creation of a battalion in Russia that will consist of Germans.
The unit will be called “Krieger” and, according to Dadaev, will focus primarily on countering drones and will not be deployed to the front lines.”
Ah, that last sentence is significant. Here’s how one Russian warblogger described the level of professionalism of these drone-hunting ‘fire groups’ last month:
“We’re forming Mobile Task Forces (MOGs) and assembling them by units: homeless people, alcoholics, 500s, disabled people, idiots – why aren’t they shooting down anything?”
And here they are in training:
Russian mobile fire group training spins out of control [video]
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“YakB-12.7 rotary machine gun developed for a Mi-24 helicopter mount tosses gunner through air.”
The video is well worth a watch.
FIRST ALL-ROBOT SEABORNE ASSAULT
It was a small incursion. Little or no damage was done. Yet this one tiny operation has global importance. With reconnaissance and surveillance provided overhead by a Ukrainian drone, a naval drone landed a machine-gun equipped robotic vehicle on Russian-occupied territory. The robot opened then opened fire on Russian targets.
Ukrainian drone boat Lands Armed Robot Ashore In Russian-Held Territory
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“[A] Ukrainian UGV [robot] was delivered to the Kinburn Spit across the Black Sea via an unmanned [navel drone] and was immediately deployed to destroy everything Russian.
Described as a first of its kind, the mission could be a glimpse of what’s to come for amphibious operations.”
Although dramatic, it is not clear how much damage the robotic ground vehicle did before it either became bogged down, hit a mine, or its battery ran out. That does not matter. This is a vivid demonstration of what warfare could potentially become.
NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE
As drones replace humans on the frontline (until Russia’s likely mass mobilisation in the fall, that is), so new drone/counter-drone developments and tactic come more to the fore. Quite a few of them feature this week.
A DRONE THAT JAMS DRONES
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Unwave has developed an electronic warfare drone to counter Russian Mavic drones
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“The Ukrainian company Unwave has developed the Rebodron UAV with a built-in electronic warfare (EW) system… It’s a pre-production prototype developed at the request of a Ukrainian Defense Forces unit. Russian Mavics were causing trouble for the military, so they [approached] the company with the idea of an EW [FPV].
To increase effectiveness, the operator can turn the EW system on or off while in flight. This allows the drone to approach the target as discreetly as possible and activate jamming right next to the enemy drone.”
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DRONES PENETRATE INTENSE JAMING TO DESTROY REMOTE MINELAYER
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Russia’s Zemledeliye minelayer can create minefields from 15km away with precision. Laying a new minefield in front of an advancing enemy can bring a threatened breakthrough to an immediate halt. It is a very useful piece of equipment.
Ukrainian FPV Drone Destroys Rare Russian Zemledeliye Minelayer in Zaporizhzhia (Video)
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“The Zemledeliye is one of Russia’s newest engineering assets, first unveiled during the 2020 Victory Day parade in Moscow. Unlike conventional mine-laying methods, the system enables Russian forces to rapidly establish minefields from a safe distance, complicating Ukrainian maneuver operations.”
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OLD FAILED SOLUTION CLAIMS TO BE NEW SOLUTION
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‘Active protection systems’ on tanks have been around for a decade or more. Designed to defend against anti-tank missiles, they are counter-measures designed to either kill of confuse a missile or tank round. They use smoke, flares, radar, reactive explosive charges, and directed munitions. Never very successful, they have struggled badly in the drone era where a pilot can ignore the countermeasures, and a swarm can attack until the tank is out of reactive munitions. Israel’s ‘drone proof’ Merkava tanks have suffered badly from that over-confidence recently in Lebanon.
However, if there is one thing Russia is good at, it is i reinforcing failure.
Russia Claims FPV-Resistant T-72B3A Tanks With Arena-M Active Protection Are Heading to the Front
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“The reports state that the crews are currently completing training and final preparations before deployment. The tanks are reportedly intended to support assault units during attacks on Ukrainian defensive positions.
The system also has inherent limitations. Arena-M carries only 12 interceptor munitions, with two assigned to cover each 90-degree sector. As a result, a coordinated swarm of drones could potentially overwhelm the system. In addition, the interceptor rounds themselves are relatively expensive and require regular replenishment.”
It will probably need a new twist in the drone arms race for active protection systems to restore tanks to their battlefield pre-eminence. It seems unlikely the Arena-M will achieve that.
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MAD MAX COLUMN MASHED
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Some vodka-fuelled thinking going on here.
[Russian commander] bet 50 vehicles that the drones would miss. The drones did not miss
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“Russian commanders had banned their own vehicles from these roads, knowing what the drones do to them. Then they lined up 50 and sent them anyway… Drones detected and attacked [a] column of trucks, vans, cars, all-terrain vehicles, and motorcycles just south of the ring road near the village of Malynivka, an important base for Russian forces fighting in Donetsk. When the smoke and dust cleared, more than 50 vehicles had been hit and immobilized if not destroyed..”
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COMMANDER OF SCANDAL-RIDDEN BRIGADE ARRESTED
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Commander of Ukraine’s 155th brigade detained in kidnapping, murder case
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“Stanislav Luchanov, the former commander of Ukraine’s scandal-hit 155th Mechanised Brigade, has been detained in Kyiv in connection with the alleged kidnapping and murder of two civilians in Kyiv Oblast.
The French-trained 155th has faced other scandals since its formation. Originally presented as a flagship modernization project trained and equipped with support from France and other partners, the brigade has been plagued by allegations of poor leadership, widespread desertions, and command failures.”
NEWS OF THE MIDDLE STRIKE
Bridges, power infrastructure, and, of course, road tankers and trucks continue to be pummelled. Russian milbloggers blame the government, regional and national, for not defending Crimea more effectively. See the ’SHADOW FLEET” section for more detail on the shipping strikes.
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‘HUMANITARIAN’ AID HIT BY THE MIDDLE STRIKE
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Russian soldiers have to buy their own body armour, sleeping bags, even body bags. Senior officers steal the funds allocated. The lower ranks rely upon fund-raisers and donations from civilians to equip them for combat. Wildberries, Russia’s Amazon, has a fine selection of gear that can be ordered for loved-ones at the front. Volunteers collect funds, organise the purchases, and deliver them by truck to the front. These too are sometimes stolen by officers, but a lot got through. Until now
Russian military logistics in Ukraine are breaking down due to Ukrainian drone attacks
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“Amid a critical lack of fuel for ‘humanitarian aid’ volunteers… this is likely to have a severe effect on the front line, because troops in the field depend heavily on donated supplies.”
Russians, such is the weird everyday hypocrisy that they live with, describe this military equipment as ‘humanitarian’ aid, as if it is being used to protect civilians. It is not.
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MYSTERY BUNKER IS NO MORE
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On 25th June, a RAM-2X took out a BTR-82 armoured personnel carrier in a neat attack. Ukraine did not identify the location. Nothing unusual in that. However, the surveillance drone video of the strike revealed the BTR was parked in front of the entrance to what appeared to be a very large bunker. No mention was made of that by Ukraine.
RAM-2X loitering munition strike on Russian BTR-82
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Then on 13th July came this announcement of an overnight attack on a bunker complex hidden in the sand dunes along the Kherson-Crimea border:
Ukrainian forces struck a semi-underground Russian logistics hub near Armyansk overnight
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“The site contained command posts and warehouses. Air Force aviation and drones… Satellite imagery published before the attack shows that Russian forces had developed the site into a heavily fortified logistics complex with trench systems, covered positions, underground vehicle entrances, and storage infrastructure built on the grounds of a former fish farm.”
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PUTIN ORDERS REVENGE MIDDLE STRIKES
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Russian attacks have continued on Ukrainian logistics, particularly railway locomotives, petrol stations, and road transport.
Putin’s goal is to maximize destruction in border and frontline regions claims GUR
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“Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) claims Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces to intensify drone attacks on gas stations, freight and passenger transport, civilian vehicles, and civilian infrastructure.”
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COMBAT DIVERS DESTROY BOMBER SECONDS BEFORE TAKEOFF
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Now that the Black Sea has largely been cleared of the Russian navy, Ukraine’s combat divers do not have much to do. So they have taken to piloting attack drones.
Ukrainian combat divers destroyed Russian bomber at Crimea’s Saky airbase [video]
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“Two drones [caught a] Su-24M tactical bomber on the tarmac before takeoff. It was the fourth reported strike on Saky in a month.
The first drone hit the Su-24M’s nose section, the second struck the fuel tanks, destroying the aircraft”
THE WAR ON RUSSIAN AIR DEFENCE
CRIMEA ROUNDUP
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Russian air defense in Crimea took another major hit
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“Drones struck S-400 launcher, Tor-M2, Pantsir-S1 and two Nebo-U radar systems during the July 12 to 13 strikes. on Crimea.
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DEFENCES FOR STRATEGIC ‘SUBMARINE CITY’ STRIPPED BARE
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Russian Nuclear Submarine Construction Plants are No Longer Protected by S-300/400 SAMs
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“Russia is stripping S-300 and S-400 systems from northern sites. Russia has withdrawn a significant portion of the air defense systems protecting the shipyards where nuclear submarines are built in Severodvinsk.
At least two dozen S-300 and S-400 anti-aircraft missile systems have been withdrawn from two key defensive positions in the north of the country due to a shortage of missiles and the need to strengthen air defense in other regions.”
By my count there are at least eight S-300 and S-400 batteries in the left hand image. Each battery has four launchers. Each of those is loaded with three or four missiles. Only one battery remains in 2026.
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1950S-ERA EARLY WARNING RADAR DESTROYED
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Russia is having to dig deep to replace all the radars Ukraine has destroyed.
Ukraine Destroys Rare Soviet-Era Oborona-14 Radar in Drone Strike (Video)
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“The system was later identified as the 5N84A Oborona-14, the last mobile variant of the Soviet P-14 family of early-warning radars developed in the late 1950s and introduced in its upgraded form during the 1970s. With an antenna measuring approximately 32 meters wide and 11 meters high, and an overall structure reaching around 25 meters in height, it is one of the largest radar systems ever fielded by the Soviet military.”
UKRAINE’S LONG-RANGE WAR
REFINERY ROUNDUP
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Russian oil depot in Mikhailovsk, near Stavropol was badly damaged.
Afipsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai was set ablaze. The plant has an annual processing capacity of around 6.25 million tons.
At the Syzran refinery, the ELOU-AVT-5 and ELOU-AVT-6 units were hit, which together handle 100% of the primary processing capacity of 8.9 million tons per year
At Salavat refinery, 1400km from the frontline, the AVT-6 and AVT-4 units were attacked. It has halted oil and gas condensate processing after Ukrainian drone strikes.
The Pervy Zavod refinery in Russia’s Kaluga region was damaged following two drone attacks.
A Russian oil depot in Noginsk, Moscow region, was set ablaze after an overnight Ukrainian drone attack.
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RUSISA LOSES ANOTHER STRATEGIC BOMBER
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This year, there has been a notable shift away from attacking the Russian air bases used to launch missiles at Ukraine’s cities. In 2024 and 2025, Ukraine attacked them regularly, often causing significant damage, but this year the attacks have been few because the Kremlin has dispersed its strategic bombers to the far Arctic and Siberia.
This week, the Engels-2 airfield in Saratov region was once again attacked. Most of the bombers that launch attacks on Ukraine stage through Engels-2 to refuel and load missiles as they transit from their far-distant bases.
Ukraine reportedly strikes [Engels-2] airbase, destroys strategic bomber
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“A reported overnight drone strike sparked a fire at Russia’s Engels-2 airbase, home to the strategic bombers that regularly launch cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
According to preliminary data, [a Tu-95 Bear] suffered critical damage, with its tail section completely torn off.”
What makes this unusual is that Engels-2 is heavily defended. Yet no missile air defences were reported to be activated. Ukraine used an unusual unidentified ’Shahed-style’ drone for the attack.
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RUSSIA’S AMAZON LOSES MOSCOW DEPOT IN DRONE STRIKE
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Principally famous recently for firefights between gunmen employed by factions in the company’s ownership, Wildberries in Russia is as ubiquitous as Amazon is elsewhere.
Drones struck Wildberries warehouse in Elektrostal, Moscow region [video]
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“Wildberries is Russia’s Amazon-style online marketplace, with massive logistics hubs across the country.”
As usual, the local mobile defence teams threatened to do as much damage as the drones.
Russian air defense shells explode dangerously close to the ground near Wildberries depot [video]
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“The site is the size of a small town.”
The fires spread quickly.
Helicopter drops water on Wildberries fire
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“The entire site is engulfed in flames after the overnight drone attack on Russia.”
PETROL QUEUE MAYHEM
“The governor joked that the ‘buckwheat lovers’ were to blame, allegedly buying up everything in canisters again. Now even the buckwheat itself is disappearing. Why the authorities are so afraid to name the real reason for this is unclear.”
Alexander, Lipetsk Oblast
The drone strike campaign against Russian oil refineries is impacting daily life in Russia to an unprecedented extent
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“Drivers are being forced into desperate measures, such as buying diesel siphoned off from locomotives and resold by corrupt railway employees.”
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IF YOU NEED BINOS, YOU KNOW THE QUEUE IS A WASTE OF TIME
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Driver pulls out binoculars to see how far he is from the pump
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YOU DON’T SEE MANY CYCLISTS IN RUSSIA
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Officials in Stavropol told to ditch their cars and use bicycles instead
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“The move is the latest Russian attempt to save increasingly scarce fuel after Ukraine’s destruction of Russian refineries.”
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GAS STATIONS GOING BUST
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Russia’s fuel crisis is causing gas stations to go out of business en masse
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“At least 150 have been put up for sale, including some belonging to major distributors.”
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BLACK MARKET BURNOUT
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Illegal mobile gas station catches fire, burns seven cars on parking lot
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“In Novobessergenovka, Rostov region, fuel reseller had bought 7 cubic meters of gasoline in bulk and was reselling it from his truck converted into a mobile gas station. it then caught fire.”
RUSSIA’S LONG-RANGE WAR
GERAN-4 USES MACHINE VISION TO TARGET GRAIN EXPORTS
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Russia is importing British Raspberry Pi micro-computers to allow algorithmic targeting. The cheap Raspberry Pi is popular with schoolchildren and computer enthusiasts around the world.
A $50 computer just flew Russia’s newest jet drone into a Ukrainian grain ship—and jamming couldn’t stop it
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“Russia’s fast, highly autonomous Geran-4 one-way attack drone is the weapon of choice for strikes on Ukrainian grain ships… A Raspberry Pi microcomputer flies the final attack run, holding the lock through Ukrainian jamming... On or just before 12 July, Geran-4s penetrated Ukrainian air defenses and targeted ships in the port of Chornomorsk, 20 km south of the larger port in Odesa in southern Ukraine.
The jet-propelled Geran-4 cruises at 500 km/hr or faster. The newer, faster drone outpaces many Ukrainian interceptor drones, making it harder to take down by kinetic means.”
Last year, Egypt bought more than a quarter of Ukraine’s wheat. Algeria and Indonesia purchased almost as much. They may now face major shortages.
Russia’s port strikes leave Ukraine’s grain with only one option
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“Russia’s strikes have halted Ukraine’s deepwater grain exports—and there’s no way around the damage: one rail line carries almost all of it.
The [damaged] deepwater terminals that once stockpiled up to seven million tons a month can now hold four to five—a gap of about 2.5 million tons a month that the Danube barges, the trucks, and the western rail crossings together cannot come close to filling the gap.
Major traders have now suspended purchases for delivery to deepwater terminals, and shipowners have begun refusing to enter Ukrainian ports, citing force majeure.”
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KAMIKAZE DRONE WAYPOINTS IN BELARUS REACTIVATED BY RUSSIA
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If there’s one thing you can be sure that Putin will do it is to ignore or break any agreements. Three weeks ago, Belarus was facing Ukrainian military intervention unless it switched off the relay stations Russia was using to guide Shahed drones to Kyiv and Ukraine’s western cities. Belarus duly complied. Now appears Russia has either reactivated them or is using repeaters secretly hidden on Belorussian soil.
Russia has been conducting revenge attacks on Ukrainian petrol stations. The complex route one drone followed to the city of Malyn and then the precision of its attack on a petrol station there seems suspicious.
Russia Suspected of Reactivating Drone Relay Stations in Belarus for Precision Strikes
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“A jet-powered, camera-guided Russian Shahed drone struck a gas station in the Ukrainian city of Malyn on Wednesday morning, military technology expert and defense advisor Serhii “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on July 15.
The strike, which occurred in the Zhytomyr Oblast, exhibited flight behavior highly characteristic of manual, real-time camera control. According to radar data analyzed by Flash, the drone initially flew along the Belarusian border, navigated directly over a highway to the city of Korosten, and then tracked a railway line to Malyn before striking its target… “
“Beskrestnov noted that because Malyn is located approximately 260 kilometers from the Russian border, maintaining a direct radio control link over that distance is technically impossible. Furthermore, no other Russian drones were in the air at the time to serve as airborne signal repeaters, leaving a ground-based transmitter as the only viable technical explanation.
These repeaters are small and easily deployed, raising the possibility that Russian forces may have installed them secretly, without the explicit authorization or knowledge of the Belarusian government.”
SHADOW FLEET NEWS
Russia is reported to have halted shipping in the Sea of Azov
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“This is likely to have drastic effects not just on Crimea but on many Russian exports.
Reuters reports that Russia has suspended shipping on the Azov-Don Canal due to Ukrainian attacks, according to sources in Russia’s grain export industry. Up to a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports pass through this route.”
In the last then days, Ukrainian drones struck 147 shadow fleet vessels. I stopped counting on Thursday.
Every vessel attacked has been a valid target, even the tugboats (they tow chains of heavily laden barges), but it is to keep perspective on this major achievement. Many of the vessels damaged were relatively small riverine and coastal ships built to navigate Russia’s rivers and canal network. Often they carry 1,000 tons of oil or grain. They are not ocean-going tankers with a capacity for 80-100,000 tons of oil or more, let alone supertankers. The smaller tankers and grain carriers feed their cargoes into the ocean-going vessels.
The smaller ships are also mostly Russian-flagged vessels. In contrast, the rest of the Shadow Fleet are flag-of-convenience tankers and bulk carriers whose Russian owners conduct murky transactions to offload their cargoes overseas. These vessels were crucial to keeping Crimea resupplied. So many have been disabled in the Sea of Azov that
This week, Ukrainian USVs (Unmanned Surface Vessels) badly damaged a genuinely big shadow tanker, the Panamanian registered Louise 1. Fully loaded, its tonnage is just under 160,000 tons, half of that is crude oil.
Some of the ships badly damaged in these attacks have also been bulk carriers that export the stolen Ukrainian grain harvest from Crimea and the south of occupied Ukraine.
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ATTACKS SHIFT TO BLACK SEA COAST
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Ukraine’s drones are now shifting their attack south of the Kerch Strait and into the deep-water anchorages of the Black Sea proper.
Overnight on 15 July, drones struck 17 oil tankers, two gas carriers, and one tug in Black Sea waters
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“Ukrainian drones switch to the Black Sea: 20 first tankers hit…Drone Forces Commander Robert Brovdi says the tally of ships [attacked] in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov now stands at 136.”
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DRONE INTERCEPTOR TEAMS TO DEFEND SHIPS
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Moscow is pulling its best drone unit off the front to guard tankers
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“Rubicon built its reputation hunting Ukrainian logistics near Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine. A partisan network says it’s being sent to sea instead.
Oil is Russia’s largest export earner and the financial foundation of its war. The shadow fleet is how Moscow keeps that revenue flowing despite sanctions”
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OCEAN-GOING TANKERS BADLY DAMAGED BY NAVAL DRONES
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Two More Tankers Struck by Naval Drones
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“The tankers ‘Louise 1’ and ‘Banda’, which are subject to Ukrainian sanctions and are used to transport Russian oil, were targeted…
During the attack, Russian aircraft attempted [unsuccessfully] to destroy the Mamai naval drones with machine-gun fire and aerial bombs
The vessels belong to the shadow fleet Moscow uses to sell crude despite Western sanctions… Russian aircraft tried and failed to stop the attack.
The ‘Louise 1’ transported Russian oil in circumvention of the G7 and EU embargoes, making voyages with its automatic identification system turned off… In 2026 alone, the vessel transported nearly 3 million metric tons of Urals crude oil.”
Naval drones can strike a ship much harder than aerial drones. Their larger warhead (usually 800kg or more in this class of USV) can hole a vessel at the waterline, potentially sinking it.
FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE
CO-PRODUCTION NEWS
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As ever, more collaboration and more production being shifted to safe European countries was announced this week.
Germany funds and builds 50,000 Ukrainian-designed Shrike drones for Ukraine.
Ukraine and EU to Build Drone Factories in Europe.
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UKRAINE BUYS LICENCE TO BUILD FRENCH GLIDE BOMB
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Ukraine Gets License to Produce Hammer Glide Bomb
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“The [French] Hammer is already being used extensively by the Ukrainian Air Force, but only in the 250-kg bomb configuration and [at a] 70km maximum range…[the licence may allow for a longer range of 140km.]”
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US ARTILLERY SHELL PRODUCTION FALLS SHORT
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Maybe it was a good thing in late 2024 when the US Republicans suddenly blocked the supply of munitions to Ukraine. Czechia stepped in to launch a multi-national effort that resupplied Ukraine and averted catastrophe. Europe raced to expand munitions production to prevent a reoccurrence. But it is now revealed that the USA could not meet even its internal targets for production. Why? Because a short-cut turned out to be not-so-short.
Pentagon Audit Reveals Why U.S. Failed Its 100,000 Monthly 155mm Shell Target
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“In March 2022, U.S. set goal to produce 100,000 155mm shells monthly starting October 2025. However after 4 years, as of March 2026, it reached only 36,000 monthly, which raised many questions.
In 2022, a plan was approved involving purchasing WWII-era manufacturing equipment for obsolete M107 shells and adapting it for modern ammunition component production. This supposedly would be faster than purchasing specialized equipment for modern M795 shells... However, [the] results were disappointing. The old equipment could not be converted. Approximately, half the planned number of shells are being produced.
Europe has long surpassed U.S. in artillery ammunition production. Specifically Rheinmetall alone produces 1.1 million units annually compared to [America’s} planned 852,000 annually at 71,000 monthly.”
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NEW-FORGED ARTILLERY BARRELS ARRIVE IN UKRAINE
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Artillery barrels wear out and need replacing. Cold War-era European and US stocks are now low to non-existent. Three years ago, the UK began constructing a new steel forge in Sheffield to manufacture these technically demanding gun barrels for Ukraine. It opened last year. The first prototypes have been delivered for testing.
BAE Systems Delivered the First Prototype Barrel Blanks in 105- and 155-mm Calibers to Ukraine
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“The deliveries are being made under a 61-million-pound contract that the UK Ministry of Defense signed with BAE Systems.
The first four barrels were provided as prototypes, which will allow Ukrainian manufacturers to test their manufacturing processes before launching full-scale production.”
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GRIPEN NEWS
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It is expensive to convert, re-equip, and transport ex-Swedish Gripens to Ukraine. Britain has donated €300 million to ensure all these hidden costs are covered when the first 16 Gripens are transferred at the end of this year.
United Kingdom To Allocate €300 Million for Gripen Fighter Jets
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And this is why some many folks got excited about Sweden transferring Gripen jet fighters to Ukraine:
Sweden Authorizes Ukraine to Use Meteor Missiles Against Aircraft on Russian Territory
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“The Meteor is a long-range air-to-air guided missile. Its stated range exceeds 120 km, and its maximum target engagement range is estimated to reach 200 km. The missile is manufactured by the European defense conglomerate MBDA.
This [decision] will significantly increase the risks for Russian combat aircraft, as fighters and bombers will have to react sooner to air-to-air missile launches and perform evasive maneuvers in advance, which will increase the likelihood of them being hit.”
Currently, Ukraine has no aircraft that can launch the Anglo-Norwegian missile, the best in NATO’s armoury.
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PROJECT NIGHTFALL UPDATE
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UK trades range and firepower for faster delivery of Nightfall ballistic missile
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“The UK’s Project Nightfall will reportedly trade range and warhead size for faster development, as London seeks to arm Ukraine while expanding Europe’s defense industry.
The United Kingdom has signed contracts with several defense companies to develop its first domestically produced ballistic missile in more than 50 years, with a “pared-down” design intended to accelerate deliveries to Ukraine by late 2027, Bloomberg reported on 16 July, citing people familiar with the program.”
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PRESSURE GROWS ON GREECE TO TRANSFER PATRIOT MISSILES
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Allies Press Greece to Send Patriot Missiles to Ukraine
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“Greece is facing constant pressure from its NATO allies and the European Union to provide Ukraine with air defense assets, including Patriot missiles.
According to its data, Kyiv has requested the transfer of up to 200 PAC-2 missiles from the Hellenic Air Force’s stockpiles. The Ukrainian side argues that some of the Greek missiles have been in service for about 23 years and are nearing the end of their guaranteed service life.
According to sources familiar with the situation, one of the options discussed by the allies was for Greece to sell missiles to Norway, which could then transfer them to Ukraine. They noted that any transfer would be possible only if the anti-aircraft missiles were deemed serviceable but not critically necessary for Greece’s own defense.”
It needs to be emphasised that PAC-2 missiles can intercept ballistic missile but miss two-thirds of the time. Ukraine needs the far more effective PAC-3 versions currently being used in large numbers in the Persian Gulf.
Greece has had many clashes with Turkey over the decades.
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UKRIANE BUYS PATRIOT ALTERNATIVE
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Ukraine has ordered four SMAP/T NG batteries from France and Italy. The waiting list is long and it may be at least two years before they arrive. In the meantime, France will loan Ukraine two SAMP/T batteries.
Ukraine Orders Four SAMP/T NG Systems
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“France to Temporarily Transfer Two SAMP/Ts Until Delivery.”
Better still:
Ukraine Getting License To Build Aster 30 Anti-Missile Interceptors
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“French President Emmanuel Macron says Ukraine is in line to get a license to produce Aster 30 missiles domestically. Aster 30 is the anti-air interceptor used in the SAMP/T surface-to-air missile system, examples of which are already in Ukrainian service. The Franco-Italian SAMP/T is often described as an analog to the U.S.-made Patriot, and both systems offer Ukraine vital anti-ballistic missile capability.”
But I have to remind everyone that the production cycle for the Aster-30 missiles is still two years. Just like the Patriot PAC-3 interceptor. This deal has yet to be signed. It will take serval years to build the factory, and then it will take tow more for the first missile to be delivered.
EUROPE & CANADA REARM
TWO NORTHERN NATO NAVIES MODERNISE
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Lithuania and Norway to Jointly Develop Multi-Purpose Warships
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“Lithuania and Norway signed a memorandum of cooperation under a program to develop standardized multi-purpose ship.
The program provides for the development of a single modular platform to replace ten different classes of ships. This will allow the same hull to be rapidly reconfigured for different missions, significantly reducing maintenance and modernization costs.
Depending on the installed mission modules, the ships will be able to perform air defense missions using NASAMS air defense systems, operate drones, conduct electronic warfare, lay or clear naval mines, and engage surface targets with anti-ship missiles.”
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PUTIN’S LAW UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
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First there was the 3-day Special Military Operation which has turned into a destructive self-inflicted war of attrition more than five hundred times longer than intended. Then there was NATO expansion driven by fear of Russia, with Sweden and Finland joining the coalition. That was followed by European nations rearming on a never-before-seen scale with Germany in particular re-equipping its long-ignored armed forces.
Following the ballistic missile bombardment of Kyiv, a European coalition was established to build a cheap alternative to Patriot with which to shoot down Iskander ballistic missiles on re-entry. Now, after Putin’s stunt of firing Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles at Ukraine, a coalition of European companies has formed the Bliksem EXO Consortium to intercept Russian ballistic missiles before they re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere. Soon Europe will have an independent multi-layered ballistic missile defence. It is the very last thing Putin desires.
If Putin had kept out of Ukraine it is likely none of this would have arisen.
Europe to Develop Its Own Exoatmospheric Ballistic Missile Interceptor
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“European defense companies have agreed to form a consortium to develop an interceptor capable of shooting down medium- and intermediate-range ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere.
The goal of the collaboration is to develop an independent European solution for missile defense, including against medium-range Oreshnik-class ballistic missiles with separable, maneuverable warheads.
This is very different proposition to the Anti-Ballistic Coalition whose participants agreed to work together on a more affordable alternative to the US Patriot systems.”
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OH, THE IRONY
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Given America’s failure to meet its target for artillery munitions production (see ‘US ARTILLERY SHELL PRODUCTION FALLS SHORT’ above), it does seem ironic that the Czechs (who stepped in to rescue Ukraine when the US abandoned Ukraine at a time of desperate need) are building a ammunition plant in the USA.
Czech Company CSG Begins Construction of 155-mm Shell Production Line in USA
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“The Czech industrial and technology group CSG has officially begun construction of the Future Artillery Complex (FAC) at the Iowa Ammunition Assembly Plant (IAAAP). The facility is designed to produce up to 36,000 155-mm artillery shells per month.”
That’s all for now. See you next week.
Any errors, queries, or omissions gladly accepted.
I hope General Syrsky doesn’t ultimately “win” in the competition with DM Federov. Ukraine needs change and improvements comparing unfavorably with how Washington/Congress works. And thanks, Martin, for the “Mad Max column smashed“. I could picture this with joy in my heart that Ukraine is doing so well. And that photo about using binoculars to see the end of a gas line… too much!! Your reporting is remarkable. I wish more people (MSM) could see it.
i really look forward to your posts each week, pulling seemingly disparate threads together