The Under Reported War Issue 33
War crimes tribunal funded / Attack of the toilet tents / Gripen fighter deal imminent / $500m in new aid / Another Russian general dies
Welcome to a weekly roundup of news from the war in Ukraine you probably did not hear about .
All reports are linked to their sources so you can read the original if you’d like to. If you have any questions, detect errors and omissions, or need more detail, just let me know.
Here are some of the notable events you probably did not hear about for the week covering Sunday 3rd to Saturday 9th May 2026:
EU votes funds to allow war crimes tribunal to commence work
In April, Ukraine destroyed more than 57,000 Russian drones and missiles
Gripen fighter deal gets ever closer as Swedish ‘flat-pack’ airfield kit delivered to Ukraine
Taiwanese mill owner donates 206 emergency vehicles
$500 million in new European and Canadian aid to Ukraine announced
Attack of the toilet tents
By the way, today is Day 1,536 of Putin’s 3-Day Special Military Operation.
FOUR HEADLINES THAT NEVER WERE
(BUT SHOULD HAVE BEEN)
As ever, welcome to The Under Reported War.
EIGHTEENTH RUSSIAN GENERAL DEAD
(THAT WE KNOW OF)
Last week I reported that the tally of Russian generals dying violently in this war may have risen to eighteen. Now, I’m pretty certain it has. The chief researcher of the unit that supplied the Novichok nerve agent that murdered Alexei Navalny, died of a bullet wound last week. Novichok was responsible for the 2018 poisoning of the Skripals and subsequent murder of Dawn Sturgess.
Btw, any Brits with a TV licence should watch the BBC’s excellent new drama-doc about the Salisbury poisonings (https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episodes/p08dqns1/the-salisbury-poisonings). Doubtless it will, as usual, soon appear on Netfiix, with that streaming service, as always, attempting to pretend they made it.
Another Russian General Dies
link
“Russian media report that Colonel General Stanislav Petrov, former commander of the Russian Armed Forces’ Radiological, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, was found shot dead in Moscow.
A pistol was discovered next to his body. In recent years, Petrov served as a chief researcher in a department specializing in chemical warfare agents - a unit linked to the poisoning of Alexei Navalny.”
EU VOTES TO FUND RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL
The European Union will provide funding for evidence collection and other legal groundwork for the war crime tribunal. As ever, when it comes to war crimes, America is notable by its absence.
EU votes in support of Nuremberg-style tribunal for Russia
link
“The Special Tribunal being set up will prosecute Russia for the same crime of aggression that Nazi German leaders were found guilty of in the Nuremberg trials at the end of World War II.”
VENICE BIENNALE GRAND JURY WALKS OUT, PUSSY RIOT STORMS IN
The presence of Russia and Israel at the Venice Biennale, the world’s premiere contemporary art exhibition, was made unwelcome this week.
Venice Biennale jury walks out in full — Russia and Israel return to award contention
link
“Venice Biennale’s international jury resigned on 30 April 2026 over a war crimes dispute. Russia and Israel return to award contention as ticket-holders take over voting.”
A protest outside the Russian pavilion was organised by the women Putin hates the most but loves to imprison the most: the Pussy Riot collective. They were joined by the Ukrainian feminist group, Femen.
Pussy Riot, Femen storm Russian pavilion at Venice Biennale
link
“Pussy Riot and Femen stormed the Russian pavilion at the Venice Biennale on May 6, with police on the premises tackling members from the feminist protest groups who were able to make it inside the building… According to a joint press release, 50 Pussy Riot members in pink ski masks performed the song “Disobey.””
RUSSIAN DEATH TOLL ESCALATES
Death toll from war in Ukraine so enormous that in parts of Russia it approaches casualties in World War II
link
“Vast memorials are being installed across the country. In some places, casualties are approaching or have already exceeded those sustained in World War II (known in Russia as the Great Patriotic War), previously Russia’s bloodiest conflict.“
NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINE
TOILET TENT ATTACK
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Russia’s toilet tent troops finally made their debut on the frontline. As you might have already concluded, it did not go well for them.
FPV Drones Repel Toilet Tents
link
“Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service repelled a Russian infantry assault in which troops advanced while carrying and moving inside pop-up toilet tents used as improvised anti-drone protection.”
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DRONE WALL BLOCKS RUSSIAN ADVANCE
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Ukraine Tripled Its Drone Strikes In March. Now Russian Regiments Can’t Move
link
“Ukrainian drones range freely across occupied territory. “
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TRENCHES ARE OBSOLETE
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This next video shows there is no subtlety to defence works in this war. Inside the Drone Wall, trench lines are no longer dug since they are little more than pre-dug graves waiting to be filled in by drone strikes. There is little need to worry about massed mechanised assaults or suffocating artillery bombardments either. Drones have seen to that too. Instead, minefields, berms and razor wire slow infiltrators down whilst attracting the attention of surveillance drones that then vector in swarms of FPVs attack drones. Handfuls of scattered, well-hidden infantry act as forward observers. Heavy fighting takes place almost exclusively in settlements, towns, and cities like Kostiantynivka.
28th Mech has converted a Soviet-era BTM-3 trench digger [Video]
link
“Ukraine’s 28th Mechanized Brigade has converted a Soviet-era BTM-3 engineering vehicle into a machine for laying lines of barbed tape. Originally built to dig trenches on a chassis with T-54 elements, the vehicle was repurposed through welding and battlefield improvisation. “
But even this sturdy vehicle is vulnerable too.
Ukraine Has A Special Razor Wire Vehicle. Robots Are Coming For Its Job
link
“The BTM-3 requires a human crew for its crucial but dangerous mission”
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These next two stories all emphasise how fear of enemy drones dominates every aspect of a soldier’s life on the frontline.
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A MORNING WALK INTO KOSTIANTYNIVKA
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This next video is a must-watch. Thanks to Donald Hill at Sarcastosaurus for linking to it.
If you want a sense of just how terrifying the ever-present threat of FPV drones is, watch this reporter, camera crew, and the soldiers who guide them as they try to walk into the city of Kostiantynivka along its main supply route. You won’t see any violence, but you do experience the fear and tension of the threat of drone attack. There is a lot of cigarette smoking. Understandably.
Also notable is the sheer number of UGV robots you see shuttling supplies in and the wounded out.
“Kostiantynivka [is] like a horror film” [Video]
link
“The road from Druzhkivka to Kostiantynivka has been dubbed the “road of death” — both civilians and soldiers have been killed along the way to this key eastern city…” After Russian forces brought it [in range of FPV] drones, traveling by car became too dangerous. “The main logistical artery has turned into a kill zone.”
Every ten minutes, unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) move along it: some deliver water and ammunition to Kostiantynivka, while others evacuate the wounded. Soldiers reach their positions along this road using ATVs, scooters, bicycles, or simply on foot.“
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FRONTLINE BURNOUT
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A sobering reminder that has surely been true about every intensive conflict since WWI.
Soldiers ‘stop caring whether they survive’ after 40 days on front line, Ukrainian study finds
link
“Ukrainian Military Ombudsman Olha Reshetylova said her office is preparing proposals for Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi to revise rules governing time spent on front-line positions… She linked the issue to a broader mobilization shortfall, arguing that clearer service terms could help address staffing gaps.“
CORRUPTION SCANDALS
I rarely spend any time on Russian corruption scandals. They so infest every aspect of life in Russia, especially behind the frontline, that they barely qualify as news. However, we should not pretend that Ukraine is free of this problem, even though it is rarely on the same scale. Here are two scandals that have caused uproar in Ukraine recently.
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SELLING STARLINK TERMINALS
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Since February, Russia has been blocked from using Starlink satellites to navigate its missiles and drones as they bombard cities in Ukraine. It is now alleged that legal terminals have been bought in Ukraine by civilians then sold into Russia for use in occupied Ukraine..
Ukrainian citizens are reportedly selling ‘whitelisted’ Starlink terminals to Russia
link
“So-called ‘White Starlink’ offers are proliferating on Telegram channels, offering whitelisted “Starlink for military and civilians in the new territories of the Russian Federation”“
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FIRE POINT SCANDAL
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Corruption sometimes goes (almost) all the way to the top in Ukraine.
The corruption scandal Volodymyr Zelensky won’t confront
link
“Why does the president remain silent about the biggest corruption scandal within his own ranks?”
Fire Point famously makes the FP- series of drones and missiles that are doing so much damage inside Russia. Unfortunately, its become sucked into a corruption scandal involving its owner, Tymur Mindich, who is now a fugitive after the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) released radio recordings of vast extortion demands made to suppliers to the nuclear industry.
Mindichgate widens: new tapes force an impossible choice on Ukraine’s missile maker
link
“Sanction the corruption network, lose the missiles. Don’t sanction, lose the EU funding.
Russian oil refineries have been burning for months. Most of those strikes come from a single Ukrainian company, Fire Point. Leaked transcripts published on 29 April allege that the company is run from outside by Tymur Mindich—a sanctioned fugitive in Israel, a friend of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and a central figure in Ukraine’s biggest corruption case.”
RUSSIA’S ‘INVINCIBLE WAR MACHINE
JOURNALIST DENOUNCES FRONTLINE “ORGANISED THIEVES’ DEN”
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As an increasingly desperate Kremlin recruits from the dregs of society (drug addicts, rapists, murderers, pedophiles—see widespread documented cases in previous issues), it is no surprise that Russia’s infamous criminal gangs now operate on the frontline, using intimidation, murder, blackmail, and extortion.
Russian army has been taken over by an “organised crime syndicate”
link
“The mass recruitment of criminals now means that crimes and corruption of all sorts – murder, torture, extortion, prostitution, drug and alcohol smuggling – are now routine. “
An “Organised Thieves’ Den” that has taken over Russia’s army in Ukraine is systematically exploiting the war for profit
link
“Komkov complains that professional soldiers are unable to tackle the “criminal scum” (which he refers to by the acronym “OVM”) who have taken over the lower ranks in the ‘Special Military Operation’ (SVO):”
Russian commanders are now “jumping to the tune of robbers and murderers.”
link
“Many of the Russian army’s pre-war junior officers have died in the war in Ukraine. They have often been replaced by promoted convicts and men dismissed from other positions in the security forces, leading to widespread criminal infiltration of the officer corps, says Komkov”
THE DRONE WAR (THE AIR WAR)
MONTHLY MISSILE TALLY IS UP
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In April, Ukraine’s air defense destroyed over 57,000 aerial targets
link
“Of these:🔸 69 Kh-101 cruise missiles;
🔸 7 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles;
🔸 8 Kalibr cruise missiles;
🔸 4 Kh-59/69 guided air-to-surface missiles;
🔸 5 Iskander-K cruise missiles;
🔸 4,861 Shahed-type strike UAVs;
🔸 1,065 reconnaissance UAVs;
🔸 51,110 UAVs of other types.”
THE MIDDLE STRIKE KILL ZONE
Russia still has no answer to the damage done to its armed forces by Ukrainian drones ranging across the Middle Strike zone up to 150m behind the frontline.
There have been so many Ukrainian drone attacks in the middle strike and at long range this week, that I’m only posting reports that you may find more interesting than most. Oh, and, of course, the obligatory Buk missile launcher destruction video too.
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BUK HUNTING
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Two of the latest Buk-M3s air defence missile launchers feature in this roundup of attacks. Quite why the Russians decided to unload two Buk-M3 next to each other is anyone’s guess. They’re making it easy for Ukraine. Long may Russian military incompetence last.
Ukrainian Drone Forces Hit Russian Buk-M3 Systems, Strela-10 Unit, Fuel Depots and Ammo Storage (Video)
link
“Coordinated UAV strikes targeted Russian air defenses, underground fuel facilities, drone command posts, and troop concentrations across multiple regions”
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SPECIALIST ELECTRONIC WARFARE TRUCK BLOWN UP
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This is a textbook example of how a high-value target is hunted down in the Middle Strike zone.
[Drone operators] Destroy Russian R-330Zh Zhitel EW System and Command Vehicle [Video]
link
“The target was Russian R-330Zh Zhitel automated jamming station, a mobile electronic warfare system designed to suppress communications and interfere with drone control links. Such systems are considered critical for protecting Russian units from Ukrainian reconnaissance and strike UAVs…
The operation began with analytical work to determine the probable location of the system. Once a suspected area was identified, Ukrainian forces deployed fixed-wing reconnaissance drones to conduct aerial surveillance and confirm the presence of the target in the field…. After visual confirmation, precise coordinates were transmitted to strike crews.“
The truck was finished off by a bomb from a Baba Yaga heavy quadcopter drone.
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BUKHANKA DEMOLITION DERBY
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Russia uses ‘Bukhanka’ vans (so named because of they are similar in shape to bread loaves) to transport troops and supplies through the Middle Strike Zone. Their shape makes them easy for the machine learning chips (so-called AI, although it;’s not) on Ukraine’s semi-autonomous drones to identify as targets. In recent weeks, Bukhankas have suffered heavily from ever more accurate and frequent attacks.
Ukraine’s AI drones are hunting Russia’s supply vans
link
“AI targeting cuts through Russian electronic warfare. The supply vans aren’t reaching the front... ”
DEEP STRIKES (BY UKRAINE)
(CRUISE MISSILE CORVETTES, OIL TERMINALS, & MISSILE FACTORY)
As with the Middle Strike, such is the number of attacks, the reports below barely scratch the surface. The highlights are repeat attacks on European Russia’s largest refineries, on two cruise missile launching corvettes as far apart as the Baltic and Caspian Seas, and also on a vital electronics factory. The tempo of attacks is far higher than last year, and they are conducted both with more accuracy, and with larger warheads.
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DRONES STRIKE KIRISHI - RUSSIA’S SECOND LARGEST OIL REFINERY AGAIN
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Drone Shut Down Second Biggest Refinery
link
“Russia’s second-largest oil refinery halted operations after Ukrainian strikes damaged 3 of its 4 crude distillation units, forcing a shutdown of processing… Kirishi refinery has a capacity of ~20mln metric tons/year and has been processing around ~7% of Russia’s total refining output”
Crude oil distillation towers are complex and expensive to repair.
Kirishi oil refinery in the Leningrad region halts processing
link
“In an escalation of long-range drone attacks, Ukraine has pummelled Russia’s oil industry for the past two months, from pipelines and ports to refineries and tankers, in an effort to undermine Russia’s $3 trillion war economy.”
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DRONES STRIKE PRIMORSK AGAIN AND HIT MISSILE CORVETTE
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Primorsk Oil Terminal Attacked Again
link
“[Drones] struck another Russian Kalibr carrier in a joint operation against Primorsk [Baltic Sea oil terminal]. He said a Karakurt missile ship, a patrol boat, a shadow fleet tanker, and key oil port infrastructure were all hit”
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CASPIAN KARAKURT CRISPED
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Russia regularly launches Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukraine’s cities from the Caspian Sea. It thought its ships stationed there were safe. Not any more.
Caspian Sea Missile Ship Damaged
link
“On the night of May 7, Ukrainian Defense Forces struck the Russian naval base in Kaspiysk, Dagestan, hitting a Project 22800 “Karakurt” missile ship, capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles.”
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PERM OIL INFRASTRUCTURE STRUCK AGAIN
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Both the major refinery and the critical oil pumping station outside Perm were struck by more waves of drones this week.
Perm Still Burns for 6th Day (5th May)
link
“Satellite images published by Radio Liberty show 6 oil tanks destroyed by fire as of 13:00 on May 5, while 4 tanks in the southern part of the station remain intact.”
Perm was hit again (7th May)
link
“[The Victory Day parade was] cancelled in Perm too, just like in 15 other Russian regions.”
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VNIIR-PROGRESS BURNS
(NETTING WON’T STOP A FP-5 MISSILE)
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1000km from Ukraine is the VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary. This electronics factory supplies critical components for Russia’s missile and drone war against Ukraine. It’s been attacked before but never in two waves.
First, one of Ukraine’s large FP-5 Flamingo cruise missiles targeted the main workshop leaving it a burnt-out hulk. Next day, a pair Lyuti drones blew up two more buildings in the factory complex.
It is worth emphasising that although this factory is vital to Russia’s war effort, it has no air defences save some anti-FPV drone netting that was never going to stop the relatively large Lyuti, let alone the massive Flamingo.
Ukrainian Cruise Missiles Punched Right Through The Defenses Around A Critical Russian Electronics Factory
link
“VNIIR-Progress makes Kometa modules – anti-jam satellite navigation systems used in Shahed drones, Iskander-M ballistic missiles, Kalibr cruise missiles, and glide bombs…”
Flamingo Missiles and Liutyi Drones Damage Workshops at Russia’s VNIIR-Progress Plant — Satellite Images
link
“Analysis shows that an FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile struck the front of the main building at an angle. The building was protected by anti-drone nets, indicating its priority status among the plant’s facilities.”
Ukraine hit VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary — plant behind GPS components in Russia’s Shaheds and glide bombs
link
“One strike on single plant, but its components power hundreds of systems… The plant manufactures “Kometa” adaptive antenna arrays. Without them, Russia’s precision weapons become significantly less precise.”
Drones going for a second round after initially striking the VNIIR-Progress plant [Video]
linkAftermath of missile strike on VNIIR-Progress [Videos]
link
link
“Clearer footage shows aftermath of the FP-5 missile strike on VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary, Russia.”
Satellite imagery reveals Flamingo missile damage at Russian plant making Shahed navigation antennas
link
“The imagery shows the Ukrainian cruise missile sliced into the front of the main workshop at VNIIR-Progress in Cheboksary, while two Liutyi drones hit a second building.”
DEEP STRIKES (BY RUSSIA)
(DOUBLE TAPS, MODULAR SHELTERS, AND SHAHED-HUNTING COURT JUDGES)
Russia’s incessant attacks on Ukrainian cities continues to get average-but-okay international coverage. What you do not read are the other stories that emerge from this bombardment every week. Here are a few:
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MORE WAR CRIMES
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Russian ‘Double Tap’ attacks on first responders rise
link
“Russian forces have carried out at least 401 attacks on Ukrainian emergency responders since 2022, killing 43 rescuers and injuring 258, with incidents increasing over time and peaking in 2025, according to a report released by Truth Hounds on May 6.”
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RAILWAY STATION SHELTERS
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Ukraine’s railway operator [to install] 800 modular shelters amid surge in attacks
link
“Ukraine’s state railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia is deploying more than 800 modular shelters across the country to protect workers amid a rise in Russian attacks on railway infrastructure, the company said on May 6.
The shelter rollout comes as Russian strikes on Ukraine’s railway network intensify. Ukrzaliznytsia has recorded 983 attacks on railway infrastructure since the start of 2026, with strikes also hitting passenger trains and causing civilian casualties.”
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SUMMARY JUDGEMENTS ON SHAHEDS
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Last week, an ageing civilian sky-diving transport turned Shahed drone hunter was featured, as were Odesa’s ancient Yak-52 Shahed hunters. Both efforts are crewed by volunteers. This week, it’s the turn of Ukraine’s volunteer gun crews. In particular a team that consists of three senior court judges.
Ukrainian Senior Judges Shoot Down Russian Drone
link
“A Russian kamikaze aircraft got too close to a heavily armed barge manned by three middle-aged judges taking time off from their real jobs in court.
Typical duty is two 24-hour shifts a month. Crews with taxi drivers, roofers and office workers have taken over air watch duty from his group, which is mostly made up of legal industry volunteers, Kruk said.”
GRIMLY HILARIOUS MOMENT OF THE WEEK
BOUNTY-HUNTING RUSSIANS SHOOT DOWN OWN DRONES
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Note how the dimwits try to pass off Russian drones as Ukrainian by simply painting Ukrainian colours and swastika on them. The dumbest thing of all is that instead of a bounty they were probably sent to Storm-Z units to die in pointless infantry attacks.
Bounty-hunting Russian soldiers in the Kherson region complain that they’ve been forbidden to shoot down Ukrainian drones
link
“ This may be related to Russians elsewhere shooting down their own drones, sticking swastikas on the wings, and claiming they’re Ukrainian.
“For a solid hour and a half they kept sending the “Liutyi” (Fierce) drones over us, and we were forbidden to shoot at them. Then, two hours later, the oil refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban went up in flames.””
BOOM OF THE WEEK
It’s always good to see a secret police building go up in flames. The mini-dictatorship of Chechnya in the distant Caucasus Mountains is now within easy reach of Ukraine’s drones.
Ukrainian long-range drone struck a FSB building in Chechnya
link
Btw, Chechen authorities tried to claim the drone landed 120m from its target. It is clear from the video that the building was struck. Such terrible liars. Almost as bad as the usual excuse that ‘falling debris’ caused the damage after drone strikes.
FOREIGN AID & INVESTMENT IN UKRAINE
Here’s a roundup culled from the last three weeks.
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TRUMP’S BETRAYAL
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It’s odd to be in agreement with Mitch McConnell for once.
Pentagon slow-rolling $400m support from Congress
link
“Mitch McConnell said the Pentagon is still not [providing] $400 million for Ukraine that Congress approved months ago, accusing the department’s policy shop under Elbridge Colby of stonewalling lawmakers and slow-rolling support to Kyiv.”
It’s hardly a surprise that a professional diplomat seeing what is happening on the ground cannot take Trump’s lies any more.
The acting US Ambassador to Ukraine is to resign over differences with Trump
link
“[“Julie Davis’s] impending resignation makes her the third ambassador to Ukraine to quit or be sacked under Trump. Marie Yovanovitch was recalled in 2019 and subsequently testified in the impeachment hearings over his attempt to blackmail Volodymr Zelenskyy to get dirt on Joe Biden.
Davis’s predecessor Bridget Brink resigned in protest at Trump’s approach to Ukraine in April 2025, and has subsequently accused him of corruption and appeasing Vladimir Putin.”
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JOINT VENTURES
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For over a year, instead of supplying obsolete weapons to Ukraine, allied nations sets up co-production of Ukrainian weapons on their soil, safe from Russian missiles. Denmark and the UK led the way in 2024-25, and the process has accelerated in 2026.
Tencore and France’s Shark Robotics to Create Joint Venture
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“Ukrainian TerMIT ground robotic systems will also be manufactured in Germany.”
Finnish Summa Defence to Start Joint Production with Ukrainian TAF Industries
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“Ukrainian drone maker TAF Industries has agreed to establish its third joint venture for drone production, this time with Finland’s Summa Defence... In December 2025, the Finnish company announced that it had delivered the first batch of Zeus drones from its subsidiary Summa Drones Oyj to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. ”
Ukraine and Norway are launching their first joint production of Ukrainian drones
link
“Manufacturing facilities will be established in Norway, capable of producing several thousand [middle]-strike drones. For now, all units produced under the project will be supplied to Ukraine’s Defense Forces.”
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FRANKENSAM SUCCESS
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The Raven is one what have been dubbed FrankenSAMs: an improvised missile system hastily built but highly successful. The first versions were rushed to Ukraine in 2023 to help stiffen its air defences.
Raven Air Defense System Has Downed Over 400 Russian Targets in Ukraine
link
“The original Raven system was specifically developed by the United Kingdom for Ukraine and first appeared in service in 2023. During its deployment, it demonstrated solid performance, with a reported effectiveness of around 70%, and has intercepted more than 400 aerial targets… A new version, referred to as Raven 5, has now been spotted for the first time. ”
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DRONE ALLIANCE FOR INNOVATIVE INDUSTRIAL BASE
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European Union and Ukraine to Form Drone Alliance
link
“The European Union and Ukraine will form a joint alliance dedicated to the development of unmanned aerial vehicles and countermeasures against them..
The goal of the alliance is to strengthen the security and defense of the EU and Ukraine by developing an innovative industrial ecosystem for defense UAVs.”
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HERO OF THE WEEK
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Taiwanese mill owner donates 206 emergency vehicles
link
“A mill owner in Changhua, central Taiwan, Mr. Pai Tsan-jung has donated 206 retired fire trucks, ambulances, and other emergency vehicles to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. [The latest batch of] 68 vehicles arrived in Lviv, Ukraine, and are being sent to frontline communities like Kharkiv and Kupiansk. ”
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CANADIAN MISSILE AID
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Although they did not go into specifics, Zelensky and Carney mentioned this funding in connection with the PURL agreement, where Ukraine’s supporters buy it supplies of US munitions. in this context, it seems clear they were talking about increasingly scarce Patriot interceptors.
Canada pays for $200m of anti-ballistic missiles
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link
“Canada is allocating another $200 million to help protect Ukraine from ballistic missile attack... The two leaders discussed support for the PURL program and the possibility of providing Europe with its own ballistic missile defense capabilities. At the same time, Rutte assured that the supply of anti-ballistic missiles to Ukraine continues within the framework of previous agreements.”
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FINLAND STEPS UP (AGAIN)
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Finland will provide an additional $300 million in defense support for Ukraine
link
“Zelensky said Finland will provide an additional $300 million in defense support for Ukraine, with priority funding aimed at strengthening air defense. He said the sides also discussed a Drone Deal format and Ukraine’s EU integration during talks with PM Petteri Orpo.”
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SAGA OF THE SAAB GRIPEN
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There is always quite a fuss in specialist defence publications whenever the possibility of Sweden supplying Ukraine with Saab Gripen fighters is raised.
Why the excitement?
First, the problem. The Russian air force, the VKS, has a missile, the R-37M, that can hit aerial targets from further away than any missile in Ukraine’s inventory. This means Russian fighter-bombers can lob devastating glide bombs with impunity because any Ukrainian fighter attempting to intercept them is quickly picked off by a Su-35 fighter launching a R-37M. Ukraine has lost many aircraft in this fashion and it means Ukraine can do nothing about the hundreds of glide bombs striking frontline cities every week. The glide bomb and the R-37M are two of the very few unqualified Russian success stories in this war.
The Swedish Gripen is more modern than the ageing Norwegian, Danish, Dutch and Belgian F-16s or French Mirage 2000s that have already been donated to Ukraine. Even better, it can use the Anglo-Norwegian Meteor air-to-air missile. With Gripens equipped with the ram-jet Meteor, Ukraine could outshoot the Su-35 and its R-37M and bring the glide bombing to a halt. The Russians rightly fear the Meteor.
Then there’s the early warning and control radar aircraft. Sweden has donated two ASC 890 radar planes to Ukraine. They became operational last year. These can monitor threats and direct missiles launched by Gripens at distant targets the fighter cannot even detect.
If Ukraine can acquire Gripens in sufficient numbers they could halt Russia’s glide bomb campaign, and with it any hope Putin might have of making another significant territorial advance. They could also provide air cover for an at-the-moment-unthinkable major Ukrainian offensive.
Sweden has been preparing this deal for years. It is upgrading its airforce with the new Gripen E. This means scores of the Gripen C/D models are now be available. In 2024, it put aside 14 Gripen C/Ds and spares for Ukraine. In 2025, it created for Ukraine a ‘flat-pack’ airfield kit that consists of Gripen servicing and base operating equipment.
Which is why this week’s news sparked off so much excitement.
Gripen Deal for Ukraine Gains Momentum, First Fighters Possibly Coming Soon
link
“Ukraine may sign a deal for Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen fighter jets as early as this year. There is also the possibility of receiving an initial batch of used aircraft in the near term.”
And the ‘flat-pack’ kit just arrived too. Another indication that something major is about to happen.
Ukrainian Air Force Received Airfield Maintenance Equipment From Sweden
link
“The use of this new equipment will allow airfields to remain operational 24/7 under any weather conditions, which is critical for combat readiness.
The equipment is specifically designed to maintain runways in proper condition to ensure uninterrupted aircraft takeoffs.”
Gripens are on their way. They just need the Meteor missiles too.
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F-16 NEWS
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Although wonderful gifts to Ukraine, the F-16 fighter is not a match for the Su-35 and its R-37M. However, F-16 pilots are building up a lot of experience hunting Shahed drones and on other missions. And if Russia loses air superiority over its frontlines (see Gripen news above), these F-16s will come into their own.
Belgium Proves F-16 Anti-Drone Rocket That Bypasses U.S. Supply Chain, Ukraine Set to Benefit
link
“Ukraine is set to receive 30 F-16s from Belgium integrated with the FZ275 LGR, missile supply chain independent of the U.S… The Belgian Air Force has demonstrated the shootdown of a drone target by an F-16 using the FZ275 LGR rocket by Thales Belgium, confirming the effectiveness of the solution.”
Belgium Plans to Transfer All 53 F-16 Fighter Jets to Ukraine by the End of 2029
link
“The Belgian Ministry of Defense plans to transfer all of the promised F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine by the end of 2029.”
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PLANES NEED PILOTS TOO
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Cadets completed initial flight training in the UK before starting jet aircraft training.
link
“Ukrainian Air Force cadets completed initial flight training in the UK before starting jet aircraft training. The preparation of future Ukrainian pilots continues under an international support program designed to strengthen Ukraine’s air capabilities.”
It takes years to train combat pilots, which is why so few F-16s are operational in Ukraine right now. As these cadets qualify, more and more combat aircraft will fly. And, just to be clear, there is another cadre of pilots a year behind this one, and so on.
EUROPE REARMS
Here’s round-up of the most important news from the last three weeks.
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UNRELIABLE AMERICA
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I’m not a huge fan of opinion pieces, since they are often low on journalism and high on supposition, inaccuracy, and distortion, but here’s one exception to the rule. It’s from the Washington Post and it contains a verifiable list of real-world (i.e. not just direct political or diplomatic) consequences of Trump’s alienation of his allies:
The costs of Trump’s contempt are starting to show
link [no paywall]
“From Europe to Asia, governments are hedging against unreliable and erratic U.S. power…The European Payments Initiative is building a continent-wide alternative to Visa and Mastercard.
European institutions are seeking alternatives to SWIFT, PayPal and other U.S.-dominated financial platforms.
France has moved gold reserves from New York to Paris
Politicians in Germany and Italy have debated whether their countries should do the same.
European governments are looking for alternatives to American software, fearing that U.S. firms might one day be ordered to cut off critical services.
This can all be dismissed as posturing, but Europe is collectively the world’s second-largest economy with the second most widely used reserve currency. Its actions matter.”
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NATO TO REPLACE AGEING BOEING AWACS FLEET
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Despite what Trump says, the USA has profited enormously for more than seventy-five years by being the principal weapons supplier to NATO. That seems likely to change very fast. NATO members are continuing to move away from their reliance on American weapons. The speed of this is startling.
Often assumed they are USAF aircrafy, the fourteen Boeing E-3 AWACS operated by NATO are, in fact, the only aircraft owned and operated by NATO itself. These aircraft that patrol the Polish border scanning across Ukraine and into Russia to provide early warning and missile tracking cover for Ukraine. No US aircraft have joined this mission, although Australia has.
NATO has been planning to replace this fleet. It was first assumed that the US-made Boeing E-7 would be chosen, but Trump’s threats have forced a reconsideration. The Saab GlobalEye is now the favourite. Boeing faces losing a huge sale.
It was possible for Sweden to donate two advanced Saab 340 radar surveillance aircraft to Ukraine (see Gripen section) because it has already upgraded its air force to Saab GlobalEyes. Where once Boeing would be the only serious contender, numerous other air forces are considering purchasing the GlobalEye too, including the NATO alliance.
NATO eyes Swedish Saab GlobalEye to replace 14 E-3 AWACS planes in historic shift from the U.S.
link
“NATO is interested in the Saab GlobalEye to replace its aging fleet of Boeing E-3 Sentry, marking a potential strategic shift away from decades of reliance on U.S.-built airborne early warning systems. The decision, if confirmed, strengthens resilience and cost efficiency while reshaping alliance-level command and surveillance capabilities for contested, multi-domain operations.”
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SAFE FUND IN ACTION
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Last year, the European Union created the SAFE fund. Security Action For Europe (SAFE) program established an inexpensive loan pool of €150 billion for EU members to use to modernise their militaries. The main condition of borrowing from SAFE is that only materiel made in Europe (including Ukraine) can be bought with its funds. SAFE, planned to rise to €900 billion in total, has the joint purpose of turning Eastern Europe, particularly Poland and Ukraine into ‘steel hedgehogs’ whilst cutting any dependency on American weapons to a minimum.
Romanian uses SAFE to sign €3.33 billion contract for 298 Lynx IFV
link
“Romania Explains Why Lynx IFV Costs Over €11M and What 40% Localization Means; Ukraine May Get Similar Terms”
The Lynx infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV) is a state-of-the-art machine, built by Rheinmetall. It is, perhaps, the best IFV available anywhere in the world. Unlike the tank, IFVs have proved their worth on the battlefield in Ukraine. Romania is co-manufacturing this, building its chassis in a plant in Mediaș, central Romania. This more expensive model comes equipped with the Spike anti-tank/IFV system.
The defeat of Orbán in Hungary has unlocked other EU funds that Ukraine plans to use to buy its own fleet of Lynx.
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SWEDEN LAUNCHES SPY IN THE SKY
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This is another indication that NATO members (in Ukraine) are planning to reduce dependence on the USA. Britain, France and Finland already have their own reconnaissance satellites. Sweden has just joined the club.
Sweden launches its first military spy satellite
link
“Sweden launched its first military reconnaissance satellite aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 from Vandenberg Space Force Base at 9:00 a.m. Swedish time, manufactured by Planet Labs.
The Swedish Armed Forces plan to deploy approximately ten satellites in coming years, having achieved initial operational capability well ahead of the original 2030 target.”
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ESTONIA BUILDS CHEAP DRONE KILLING MISSILE
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There is a huge demand for interceptors that can knock out Shahed-style kamikaze drones. An Anglo-Estonian collaboration between Babcock and Frankenburg Technologies, the Mark 1 containerised missile is a low-cost drone killer. It is also the world’s smallest guided missile. It has now started air-to-air launch testing.
Air Launch Could Make Estonia’s Tiny Mark I Missile Effective Against Jet-Powered Shaheds
link
“Estonia’s Mark I missile was designed specifically for counter-drone missions and is intended to become a universal weapon that can be launched from land, sea, and air platforms”
The challenge now is to keep its cost low enough that it is cheaper than the drones it is meant to kill.
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SWEDEN’S CV90 PRODUCTION REACHES NEW HEIGHTS
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The queue for new Lynx IFVs is long. The older, but equally popular Swedish CV90 IFV has proven itself to be a dominant weapon in Ukraine’s forests, so it is a cheaper, proven alternative to the Lynx. New production lines are being built in Denmark and Ukraine to cope with European demand. Again, it is notable that no European nation is considering buying new American IFVs.
BAE Systems Hägglunds Raises CV90 Production by 400% Amid Russia–Ukraine War
link
“To date, over 1,300 CV90s have been produced, with orders for more than 600 additional units. The company also notes that it aims to secure contracts for another 500 units this year for five European countries. The vehicle’s success in service with the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also highlighted. 50 units were transferred as part of military aid, and contracts have been signed for an additional 40..”
This increase in capacity (for a wide range of European weapons) is a consequence of decisions made three or four years ago. It takes quite a while to build new factories, but they started to come on-stream last year. As ever, this was all under-reported news.
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FIRST LEOPARD 2 MAIN BATTLE TANKS ROLL OUT OF NORWEGIAN FACTORY
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Another European collaboration, this time Its a German-Norwegian tank assembly line.
Norway Opens Leopard 2 A8NO Tank Factory and Delivers First Units to Army
link
“In Norway, KNDS and RITEK have opened a factory to produce Leopard 2 A8NO tanks and have already delivered the first vehicles to the Norwegian Army... In just 18 months, Norway has built a modern, integrated facility for tank production and testing.
Sustainability is a priority: the facility uses energy from geothermal sources, ensuring environmentally friendly operations.”
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POLAND BUILDS ITS DEEP STRIKE CAPACITY
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Like Trump, Putin is a constant victim of the law of unintended consequences. His invasion triggered NATO expansion, caused a revolution in warfare that he is on the losing side of, opened the path to Ukraine’s EU membership, has led to the demolition of his armed forces, the Russian economy is in crisis, his oil exports fell 40% at a time of sky-rocketing prices, and Europe is re-arming. It would have been sensible for Putin to keep his drones out of NATO airspace too. He just could not resist and now there’s another unplanned for consequence Russia has to deal with.
Poland Is Building Long-Range Precision Strike Capability
link
“Poland’s military leadership has publicly confirmed, for the first time, that the country is actively developing the capacity to strike deep into enemy territory with precision weapons a significant step toward a non-nuclear long-range deterrent on NATO’s eastern flank.
The confirmation comes against the backdrop of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the mass use of long-range drones, and repeated incidents involving violations of NATO member airspace. “
The evidence is that Ukraine is winning this war of attrition.
Every day Ukraine gets stronger, and Russia gets weaker.
That’s all for now. See you next week.
I am astounded by the reporting here that is nowhere in MSM or even Substack. It’s probably a good thing that “under reported war“ reports on results instead of planning, so the T regime can’t interfere. What Ukraine is doing, is simply phenomenal and gets my applause for each and every bit of success! ❤️ what happens to our own country as a whole when we are no longer manufacturing all the weapons/planes/tanks? Our economy will collapse following the results of the unneeded war with Iran. Lasting results that only Russia (and maybe China) can love.
Fantastic reporting. I would like to add that as a member of Indivisible Abroad we are working on a campaign together with German computer hacking groups, like DatenPunks and Computer Chaos Club to develop a global divestment from Big data gathering Big Tech. We are at a stage now where the Indivisible group I lead is trying out alternative platforms for the tech we want to replace in our lives, so it is not a boycott, but a divestment, and then we will be spreading the word. We are going to be doing training of other groups on the Fediverse. Indivisible is growing to more and more countries so that the last No Kings demonstration data had groups on all 7 continents.
This information is specifically for US citizens or people living in the US. I am a member of Indivisible Abroad. I lead a group in a city in Northern Germany. Indivisible Abroad and Indivisible are some of the organizations supporting Free Speech for People's campaign to impeach Trump and his cabinet. Would you please read my piece explaining it and help us get 2 million signatures by signing the petition in it? https://lindaweide.substack.com/p/indivisible-abroad-supports-the-impeach?r=f0qfn